Melbourne Cup Day and NZ racing at Ellerslie & Wingatui
Buckaroo and Joao Moreira (Image: Racing Photos)
Melbourne Cup Day and NZ racing at Ellerslie & Wingatui.
Firstly, Gavin has analysed Melbourne Cup Day, including the race itself (Race 7) over on the Australian section. It is a ‘must read’ summary for members and well worth the subscription to get quality ratings-based information.
So, with that in mind, I’m not going to overlap things too ...
A Home Track Each Way Play
Khan Hunter and Maria Sanson winning the Seeka Kiwifruit Cup (2100m) at Tauranga. Photo: Trish Dunell
A Home Track Each Way Play
“Horses for courses” is an old saying in racing that reflects the ...
Caulfield Cup Day - Review
How do you rate 113/122 and not win a Caulfield Cup
Unique Insight's
There is no other form provider supplying the depth of data we do, we have traditional Weight Ratings and Speed ratings which tell us who is running times faster than average for their class, once they get to town we get a sectional rating, where a horses last 400m is taken into account creating an artificial time that can be used to create a rating. If the Sectional Rating (XR) is higher than the Speed Rating (SR) we know the horse was strong through the line, if it is lower we know it came home slower than it went out. Not such a concern with leaders but for horses rising in trip its vital information. We also have a TOF (Turn of Foot0 rating which is a numerical indication of how many lengths faster or slower. Runners with +6 and greater have been strong through the line. We have only had this feature for 18 months or so now and I ...
Bouncing out of bad luck
Slipper Island. Photo: Grant Matthew (Race Images)
Bouncing out of bad luck
However you choose to describe it, and I’ll go with “luck”, a significant part of having success in horse racing means relying on events outside your control to work in your favour.
Campionessa harnesses the spirit of Romantic Warrior before the G1 Livamol Classic
Campionessa wins at Te Rapa. Photo from Te Akau Racing.
Campionessa harnesses the spirit of Romantic Warrior before the G1 Livamol Classic
You won’t think CAMPIONESSA has much in common with global thoroughbred star, Romantic Warrior but maybe her preparation for the Livamol Classic could have some parallels drawn to the Hong Kong champion.
Keeping The Powder Dry When The Tracks Are Wet
Keeping The Powder Dry When The Tracks Are Wet
It’s been a very niggly New Zealand Spring so far with rain adversely affecting race meetings and horse’s racing programs. So, it is with the 10-race program at Tauranga with a Heavy9 track presenting, whereas at Hawera it looks as though a far better Soft5 will be the rating.
Hastings races rescheduled to Wednesday at Matamata following Saturday’s abandonment
Hastings races rescheduled to Wednesday at Matamata following Saturday’s abandonment
As per NZ Thoroughbred Racing release:
The remainder of the meeting that was abandoned at Hastings on Saturday will be run by ...
The Group race features at Hawke’s Bay provide two classic battles of the sexes!
El Vencedor (Joe Doyle) wins the Gr. 1 Bonecrusher New Zealand Stakes. Photo: Kenton Wright
Randwick Review 21/9
Import Eliyass outstanding again with 116/121
R2 saw our luxury top pick Gold Miner Perennial win after being $6 into $3.30, I had him 95 going in and got 98/89, even better we dodged the fav. Tickleberry Sr 97 and Tai Lung 94
Caulfield 21/9 Review
The Magic One takes Buckeroo to 114/109 in a big G1 win.
We were behind the 8 Ball from the get when Quantum Cat was most disappointing on face value, we predicted 95 from him and got 92/94. so not as bad as looked. I noted in my comment that the winner Whiskey on The Hill was coming off a career best XR 90 at 1800m and would need to go up another peg to win here and boy did he rating 98/99 relishing the 2000m. His win bought cheers from those who laid Flamin Romans who in retrospect i under rated. He did have XR 98 2 back in that handy Lincoln Rocks Lauding form line it was that SR 59 in SA last start that caused my doubt and again i break my own rules about laying horses with less than 10 starts. 96/96 is a nice new line for him. 3rd placed was 6yo Corona Lad who was a 99 horse back in 2022 and showed a glimmer last start with ...
How to play Orchestral at Ellerslie
Orchestral and Craig Grylls stride to a phenomenal victory in the Gr.1 Trackside New Zealand Derby (2400m) at Ellerslie. Photo: Trish Dunell
How to play Orchestral at Ellerslie?
Dual Group One-winning mare, ORCHESTRAL will race for the first time as a four-year-old at Ellerslie over 1400m. She’s undoubtedly the most talented horse in the race, but is it the time to be diving into “the sauce”?
Okay, so most markets have ORCHESTRAL slight odds-against, rather than tomato sauce odds (odds-on) to win Race 7 tomorrow. She is first-up off 161-days with one trial under her belt. Added to that is she has ...
Run To The Rose Day Review
- Star Mare Sunshine In Paris rates 106/107 going back to back in the G2 Sheraco
Rosehill - Run To The Rose Day
Flemington Review 14/9
Import Point King Into the Melbourne Cup off 108/115 in the Archer
As per usual with Melbourne the weather forecast was not even vaguely accurate, if those BoM dudes were paid ti[sters they would quickly be out of a job, The rain came and persisted and we slid through the Grades finishing on a Heavy track.
We kicked off the day in superb fashion with the $6.90 rated Gold Miner Moby Dick winning the 1st at $12. he was triple confirmed SR 91 in debut campaign and 91/96 here says he has come on. Headwall having only 4th run in a year returned to best when 2nd with 89/94., he has 93/95 on resume just over a year ago, So there is a race for him soon. Fav Nadal was weak with 85/85.
HTF - Headwall
R2 and nothing better than staying out and watching an unders horse win, I broke one of my rules in suggesting the Winner Dawn ...
The Victress Eyes Canterbury Belle Stakes Triumph
The Victress wins her last start brilliantly at Riccarton. Photo Te Akau Racing.
The Victress Eyes ...
Hastings Review
Alabama Lass lays down a Spring marker with 108/117
Track speed, pace and position – A Group 1 card where Group 1 riding will be to the fore.
Warren Kennedy celebrates Crocetti's Gr.1 Al Basti Equiworld NZ 51st 2000 Guineas (1600m) victory. Photo: Race Images South
Track speed, pace and position – A Group 1 card where Group 1 riding will be to the fore.
Whilst much of New Zealand has experienced a wet winter that has left their turf tracks rated “slow” and “heavy”, Hastings in the ...
HK Kick Off Sunday
Hong Kong Is Back
The new season beckons and we kick off this Sunday the 8th with an all turf meeting at Shatin where the hihlight is a C1, all in all we tread quite cautiously into new season with all runners resuming , it takes a few weeks for the flow to appear but thats not to say we dont find plenty of winners we just need be a little more patient.
Its only 5 weeks later we have the first G2 of the season so it does build quickly
As I have stated for some time the $7 Plandemic pricing is over and HK only will be $14 a week as of this season and at that is well worth every penny, mind you with Jason now doing NZ and HK back on deck you really are best tp spend $330 a 1/4 and get the Platinum subscription
The HK only package is 45 weeks and gives you full form expert comment, speed weight and sectional ratings for all runs, rated prices, speed maps, odds ...
Pinstriped Gets G1 Glory
Pinstriped - 113/111 as horse and barn grab maiden G1.
Its was another staggeringly good day once again where the winners just kept flowing and more importantly the numbers just kept lining up
Caulfield
You Wouldn’t Read About It!
Read About It wins the Ryder Stakes at Otaki. Photo: Peter Rubery
You Wouldn’t Read About ...
Seven Group One winners, but it’s not a Group One race?
Bonny Lass Photo Credit: Trish Dunell
Seven Group One winners, but it’s not a Group One race?
Look North to Find a Future New Zealand Star
Whiskey 'N Roses wins at Ruakaka: By Race Images NZ
Look North to Find a Future New Zealand Star
Is WHISKEY ‘N ROSES a Group 1 winner in the making?
Stepping into a New Zealand spring with HORSETORQUE
Jay Bee Gee winning G3 Winter Cup at Riccarton, Christchurch. Photo: Race Images South
Stepping ...
The Premiership Races
Can Francis Lui come from behind to win the HK Trainers Premiership
the interest is in the trainers premiership with Pierre Ng holding a 1 win advantage over Francis Lui coming into the last day but neither have a runner in the first but Francis has Call Me Glorious at $1.50 in R2 and with a predicted rating of 99 our numbers have him also top pick. So we could well be all square going into the 3rd where PN has Medic Alert but he is a $14 chance.with Marvin having him longer than that.
In the 4th FL has Forever Glorious who ran 3rd as a Gold Miner for us last start with 95/97 reading well, he will be in my top 4 again and must be a chance but is currently $16 in early markets. R4 sees PN with the fav First Love who was +10 on debut and now ZR jumps on and he is $2.30 early, FL has debutant Packing Angel on debut off a trial win, he is $9 early. Into the 6th PN has ...
The Last G1 of the Season
We are back to Eagle Farm for the last G1 of the season with the running of the Tatts Tiara over 1400m for the F&M's
Bella Nipotina is the deserving Favourite following her 2nd against the boys in the G1 Stradbroke over the same T&D, she is triple confirmed SR 108 in 2024 and is just a fabulous mare and hasnt missed a cheque in her last 9 with the majority of those in the highest company. She come sin off 113/108 last time and is only up a kilo as she drops back to her own sex. She has amassed over $10 Million in prizemoney and you would just love her as a brood mare. Last start was her first go at 7 furlongs so she will be all the wiser for that with the only query that 17 gate and with regular rider Craig Williams on a humanitraian mission in Ukraine Ryan malloney gets the gig.
Semana was 6 lengths behind her in the Starbroke when resuming but ...
Do you bar La Crique or fill-up at Eagle Farm?
Group One performer La Crique. Photo: Trish Dunell
Star Kiwi-trained mare, LA CRIQUE, competes in Race 7 at Eagle Farm on Saturday, and the question is, do you climb on and fill up, or do you “bar” her?
LA CRIQUE competes following a 2nd at Rotorua to Karman Line where she ran a HorseTorque SR of 92 (XR 98/103), which was a perfectly respectable effort. She did so fitted with the dreaded bar ...
Geriatrix and Oughton with some numbers to beat at Eagle Farm on Saturday!
Rebel's Romance
We get to see one of the world's best today!
We get to see one of the worlds best in Rebels Romance. he is $1.40 in G1 company today and that speaks volumes on how good people think he is
1. REBEL'S ROMANCE: Scored a remarkable win in the G1 Dubai Sheema Classic (2410m) in March, defeating quality opposition from all around the world to earn an international rating of 123 and rank second in the LONGINES World's Best Racehorse Rankings. Displayed class when crushing his rivals at Doha in the G3 H.H. The Amir Trophy (2400m) in February as Russian Emperor finished fifth in the same race. Superb horse with 12 wins from eighteen starts, who is accustomed to travelling abroad, having won the 2022 G1 Breeders' Cup Turf (2400m) in the United States of America and 2022 G1 Grosser Preis von Berlin (2400m) and 2022 G1 Preis von Europa ...
Happy Valley preview
We found the winner in the top 3 in 8 of the 10 races on Sunday, in the other 2 our 1 x 3 play Joy Of Spring ran 2nd at $4.3 and the $12 rated Strathpeter won at $17. The 3 Gold Miners i sent out Sunday morning all found the podium in another nice days punting in HK. We kick off with a lowly C5 over ground so very cautious from the get go. All in all another good day in the office
There is nothing screaming back me tonight so no best bet
HK Preview
Is the 1800m just what the Doctor ordered for Joy Of Spring.
Its a cracking days racing ahead at Shatin and here how I think it plays out.
Best Bets
Race 2 sees the first strong play with 10. HAPPY FOR ALL: Forgive last start on that Soft track, there were plenty of odd results that day, go on his 2nd with the XR 94 this T&D 2 back. On that he is a lovely 1 x 3 play at the $4.70. That is followed by an interesting contest in Race 4 where a few progressive types take to the track again.
I am looking forward to the next run of 1. LUCY IN THE SKY: Was a nice overlay result for us last start, overcoming trouble at the start before recording 101/101, that was ...
The Match Race at Trentham: Babylon Berlin vs. Wewillrock
The Match Race at Trentham: Babylon Berlin vs. Wewillrock
At Trentham on Saturday, all eyes will be on BABYLON BERLIN as she prepares for her first start since the Group 1 Sistema Railway on January 1, 2024. The six-year-old chestnut mare, trained by Ben and Ryan Foote, is set to compete in Race 2, with her clear competition coming ...
Eagle Farm Review
Antino now has the Stradbroke well in his sights
The Brisbane Winter carnival kicked off with Guineas day and we started the day with a tasty Gold Miner in the $4.30 rated Wapiti winning the BM90 at $8.50, he was a 91 horse going in and we got 93/91 so right on the money
R2 was a BM78 and the $3.60 rated Northern Decree won for us at $4.60 and we found the Trifecta in our top 4. The winner was a 91 horse going in was a strong 90/101 +11 and looks like he can go right on with it.
R3 We had Typhoon Taavi clearly on top here in the FM78 and she was smashed in the betting to start at a prohibitive $1.65. they walked and she won easily with 82/88 well down on her expected 94. Thats 3 on the bounce and she is going places. She is the onlu one to take from this.
R4 was a BM85 and I marked the resuming winner Zoes ...
Identifying the Early Overs Tomorrow in NZ
Asgard was very impressive breaking his maiden at Otaki.
Identifying the Early Overs Tomorrow in NZ
Shatin G1 Review
We had a yeilding track on Sunday and its really quite off in HK, the surface is like carpet and the Daily Variant was only 100.5, thats still a Good track in Oz, in the 10 years I have been doing it I have never seen a track what we would call rain affected. When you consider NZ often has tracks with DV's 110, or 10% slower than average, yet when the rain comes results are always mixed.
Romantic Warrior was huge, never on the track, never looked comfortable but still pulled out 116/112 from the Japanese runner Prognosis 115/109, he is an absolute super star.
Golden Sixty
The Championships Day 2 Review
Have you ever seen anything like it as Pride of Jenni rates SR 118 to make her a triple confirmed SR 118 in her last 5 with a eak of 121. What a star, I just love her..
R1 was the Listed Fernhill at a mile for the 2yo's where my advice was to stay put, $2.90 top pick Broadsiding was $3.05 into $2.3 before winning with 86/90 a new peak but by no means anything to write home about. His dominance was shown by the 77/78 of the runner up who was 2 lengths back.
R2 was the Listed South Pacific Classic and again my advice was to stay out which proved sage with the $12 winner Panic hard to find and a loser avoided is the same as backing an even money winner. ...
The Turn Of Foot rating
The TOF rating
The Turn of Foot is basically the difference between the Speed Rating and the Sectional rating with some alteration for beaten margin
I wanted to write something about the Turn Of Foot indicator which more often than not applies to those settling away from the pace, we all know that our racing is very sit and sprint in nature and settling in the first 5 has a huge advantage and many of these runners neg split , ie go out faster than they come home but often those that make ground from back and are well beaten get overlooked when doing the form. For years if a horse was beaten more than 3 lengths with no excuses I would be looking at some sort of recent form penalty but I am now much more lenient on those with TOF's of +5 or more.
The TOF is ...
The Championships Day 1 Review
Circle Of Fire firms into Sydney Cup Fav after smashing the clock in the 2600m Chairmans
Day 1 of The Championships and the track and track staff did an amazing job, the Daily Variant was only +1.4 which in my world is Dead-Slow track far better than expected with the meeting in some doubt 24 hours earlier.
R1 was the G3 Kindergarten for the 2yo boys and our $1.80 top pick Espionage won arrogantly by 3 at $2.40 with 106/95 a big new peak. That SR may prove a bit high as he did have the advantage of the first use of the track.. The ratings show the dominance of his win with the runner up Roselyn's Star rating 95/82
R2 was the G2 Chairmans at 2600m, the final lead up to the this ...
Rosehill Tancred Day Review
The Kiwi star now has the Oaks well within her sights
The first race to look at is R2 the G3 Neville Selwood at 2000m and here our $2.30 rated top pick was 103 horse Serpentine and he was off the canvas showing all the Waterhouse M&B to win rating 102/102 He held off Fav Zeyrek whom we dodged rating him $6.10, we had him a 100 horse going in and got 100/102. There is a race for him soon. They had 2 lengths on 3rd placed Renaissance Woman who rated 93/98 as we found the First 4 in our top 4.
R3 was the G3 Baillieu for the 2yo's and top pick Linebacker whose SR 90 on debut was 8 better than standard who showed tenacity ...
Australia Cup Day Review
Evergreen 9yo Cascadian causes the upset going back to back in the G1 Australian Cup.
The first race of note was the Open Class Furphy Mile R3. We expected 96 from winner Arran Bay and we got 99/99 in a classic example of what Andrew Beyer called OXO. He ran a career peak 100/98 2 back then bounced with 85/94 and bounced straight back with the 99/99. Rated at $4.70 was $4.90 to $4.40 before a strong win. The eye catcher was runner up in import Galeron at 2nd Oz start after being beaten 10 lengths on Oz debut. 98/104 at first go the mile and looks primed to peak 3rd up. El Soleado was another OXO example as if to ram home the lesson. He had won 3 on the bounce peaking with 97/102 the bounced with 74/82 and bounced straight ...
William Reid Stakes Day Review
Is the Kiwi star going as well as in the Spring
The first piece of Black type was R2 the Listed Valley Pearl for the 2yo's and for those that played the strong debut numbers of Growing Empire held up, we had $2.20 and he was too strong winning at $4.40 but 88/84 was a big step down from his 96/97 over 1100m on debut.. Nothing else here raises the eyebrows.
The next piece of Black type was R5, The G2 Sunline for the Fillies & Mares. The winner Eternal Flame has gone to a whole new level this campaign following her G3 win last start where she rated 100/103 with 101/104. Runner Up Rumbled Again was 6 lengths off her at previous start ...
Slipper day Review
Import Post Impressionist makes a huge impact on Oz debut
We kicked off with top rated Electrica rated at $4.2 winning the 1st at $5, he won by 3 running a huge new career peak of 103/98. His XR's just keep improving the time in and it looks like the penny has finally dropped.
R2 was the G3 Manion over 2400m and my advice was to stay out with the import Post Impressionist heading the markets but i should of trusted my eyes, I put him up at $3.30 and for those that played he was a nice overlay winner at $3.90. He was staggeringly impressive rating 114/116 in a 3 length win and on that has the Sydney Cup at his mercy. I suggested VRC Derby winner Manzoice was on the way back after 100/107 last time out. He ran 2nd franking ...
Rosehill Review 16/3
It was a big day at Rosehill kicking off with the $5 rated Super Bright winning at a Gold Mining $8.50, we followed that with the $2.30 rated Wymark winning at $3.40 before we got to our first bit of Black type
Caulfield Review 16/3
Can Lucky Sweynesse bounce back
Over the last month here and in Oz we have seen a number of horses get beaten by pure weight of money and we dodged LUCKY SWEYNESSE when nothing went right as a $1.30 Fa. The run was obviously queried by Stewards with ZP stating he wanted to settle much closer but the horse lacked his usual early speed. He still got home +12 when finally clear and on that the return to 1400m looks ideal, a trip he is 3 for 3 at and I think he can bounce straight back. Looks a sound Win bet Bonus Bets tyle at $2.30. ZP is off to stick with 2nd pick but we get JMac who has a 100% record on the galloper.
ZP sticks with BEAUTY ETERNAL who comes off a G1 2nd with an XR 111 and the drop back in trip holds no fears as he hasnt ...
Auckland Cup: Who Do You Trust To Stay The Best?
Asterix winning the Gr.2 Avondale Cup (2400m) at Ellerslie last month. Photo: Trish Dunell
As the Auckland Cup approaches, the racing community turns its attention to a familiar name with an illustrious history in New Zealand's premier staying event. Lance O’Sullivan, a two-time winner as a jockey and successful trainer with Pentane in 2006, alongside co-trainer Andrew Scott, is poised to add another Auckland Cup to his collection. ...
The Day a $1.30-New Zealand Derby Favourite Was Beaten
Orchestral winning the Gr.2 Eagle Technology Avondale Guineas (2100m). Photo: Trish Dunell
Rumble - Horsetorque TV
Hey crew I am trying to expand content a little and have started a Rumble Channel - Horsetorque TV I have a site tour video and a video on how the number generator work, head to https://rumble.com/c/c-790325 and give us a follow. I will be more and more active in the weeks ahead with a few requests of some live video of the form ...
Will the real La Crique please stand up?!
Group One winner La Crique. Photo: Trish Dunell
Why barrier 1 should be seen as a blessing for Legarto
Photo: Kenton Wright (Race Images)
When preparing to ride a favourite in a Group 1 WFA contest, New Zealand and Australian Hall of Fame jockey, Shane Dye was always happy drawing barrier 1.
Karaka Millions 2024 - Analysis by HorseTorque NZ
The best on course, raceday experience is the Karaka Millions at Ellerslie and after track renovations, it’s super to be back!
For those unfamiliar it’s a 6-race twilight card with huge prizemoney for connections and an incredible atmosphere.
Hot horse racing from New Zealand is about to be served!
The next 2-months or so in NZ racing is an undoubted ‘hot’ period with Group 1/2 and high-stakes racing most weekends being served up in delicious fashion!
Those meetings will be covered by HorseTorque NZ providing race-by-race comments and full markets.
Coming up:
Happy New Year from HorseTorque NZ!
Happy New Year! Here's to a healthy, fun and prosperous 2024!
The racing in New Zealand centres in on Pukekohe today with the Group 1 feature being the Railway Sprint. The undercard has a heap of quality as well, so expect to see horses that race today filter over to Australia later on in the year! One of the super things about HorseTorque and what Gavin and Nathan have with Marvin is the ability to reliably compare horses and their ability, between jurisdictions like NZ, Australia and Hong Kong. It's gold for the travellers!
It's bloody good to be able to manage the NZ-arm of HorseTorque that Gav has set-up and a goal is to have it sit alongside the Australian and Hong Kong offering as a great source of ratings-based information for members to find winners! NZ racing has been relatively starved of information like this over the years, so with HorseTorque NZ another aim is to help bring serious analysis 'into the light' so NZ can sit closer to HK and Oz as a ...
Horsetorque NZ highlights from Boxing Day 26 December 2023
PUKEKOHE HIGHLIGHTS
Race 1: COOL ‘N’ FAST was rated a clear 2.1f and won at a SP$3.8
Race 2: DAZZLED & ETHEREAL STAR were the early plays at odds with PETRUCCI winning at a SP$5.9 after being rated at $4.5
Race 4: WILD NIGHT was rated $2.5 and won at a price available of $2.7 when analysis comments available.
Race 5: LIQUID FIRE closed $23.10 & $5.70 suggested as a 1 x 3 ...
Horsetorque NZ TE RAPA performance highlights from Saturday 16 December 2023
TE RAPA HIGHLIGHTS
Speed Rating (SR) / Sectional Rating (XR)
RACE 4:
ZECORA 102/104
NZ Cup Carnival at Riccarton: Horsetorque Performance Summary
NZ Cup Carnival at Riccarton: Horsetorque Performance Summary
Day 1: Starting strongly
The NZ Cup Carnival at Riccarton kicked off with LORD DONOVAN winning at a generous 5.5 bookies quote (and closing at $3.7 tote), against a rated price of 3.0. He became the ‘Horsetorque pin-up horse’ winning on each of the three days. Some effort from ...
Pukekohe Highlights 28/10
Cognito 101/105 - Best of Day
Trigon Lad 100/94
Khan hunter 89/107 +18
Malfy Rosa 80/102 +22
Gee Cee 95/102
Gino Severini 94/101
Devastate 94/97
Kick on 89/100
Roc dancer 91/103 +12
Double Take 91/105 ...
LIVAMOL CLASSIC DAY @ HASTINGS, NEW ZEALAND
LIVAMOL CLASSIC DAY @ HASTINGS, NEW ZEALAND
12/10/2023
In the heart of New Zealand's Hawke's Bay region, LIVAMOL Classic Day at Hastings beckons, offering a quality 10-race card. With a capricious spring leaving soft & heavy tracks in its wake, anticipation runs high for a potentially drier GOOD 3 or GOOD 4 surface. As seasoned racegoers know, track conditions can be the ultimate wildcard in horse racing, reshaping the odds and strategy, and that's very much been the case during this NZ Spring.
The Gold Miner
I was chatting to an Aussie about the punt here the other night at one of Patong many bars and we got talking about staking plans and betting strategies then hot streaks and big wins. It jolted my memory about the hottest streak i had on the punt when I won 18 weeks on the trot. Prior to that hot streak many moons back I had finally become disciplined in writing down my
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