The “Reverse Raid”, Are The Aussies A Chance To Take New Zealand’s Group 1 Races This Weekend?

Friday, 7 February 2025 by Jason Tan

The “reverse raid”, are the Aussies a chance to take New Zealand’s Group 1 races this weekend?

Three Australian-trained horses will compete across the two Group 1 races at Te Rapa, New Zealand on Saturday. The combined $1.2 million stakes question is though, are they good enough to win?

NUMERIAN will compete in the Herbie Dyke Stakes at WFA over 2000m, whilst HERE TO SHOCK and BOSUSTOW are set for the BCD Group Sprint over 1400m.

The BCD Group Sprint is headlined by two well-performed, G1-proven horses, GRAIL SEEKER and SAVAGLEE. GRAIL SEEKER has been the sprinting find of the season following two explosive wins at Hastings and Trentham in the top grade. She isn’t one to take a spot, but ridden where she’s happy early and then having the space to sprint hard late has seen her return two HorseTorque SRs of 106 & 108. I’ve settled on the more conservative of those two figures and she’s deserved favourite.

SAVAGLEE has delivered SRs of 106 & 101 his last two starts and I’ve conservatively pegged the brilliant colt at 102, which in fairness he might easily outrun, as he wasn’t asked for much last start. The intangible with ratings is how a horse copes with the pressure of having others with more closely match ability competing against it? He'll have that challenge in this WFA contest.

BOSUSTOW’S Gold Coast win delivered an SR 93, but he has put up a better figure at Flemington. He still has 1.5-lengths to find off his Kiwi age-group counterpart, let alone GRAIL SEEKER. He is drawn well though so should get his chance to run right up to his best.

HERE TO SHOCK delivered a HorseTorque SR of 96 winning the Supernova but has a couple of 102 & 104s to his form in recent enough starts. Pegged to 100 I think is fair and that has him a third pick in the race. So, for me, stick with the Kiwi’s here.

NUMERIAN has been shipped the breadth of the great land and now arrives in God’s Own having run SR's of 97 & 105 in Perth. He’s consistent enough in the late 90’s to suggest 99 is probably a fair enough benchmark for him here.

He is up against two very in-form and top mapping horses, LA CRIQUE and EL VENCEDOR who shape to dominate the race with the former locking in 103 and 104 ratings her last two efforts, and is rock-solid there. While EL VENCEDOR carved out a 106 over 1500m with 61kgs last time and is confirmed four times within a half-a-length of that. At Te Rapa he doesn’t run quite as well, so 102 seems fairer, but maybe I’m not giving him the credit he deserves.

Again, the Australian has a job to overcome the class of the Kiwis, and one thing this writer would be disappointed about is if the local jockeys gave their visiting counterparts any favours at all in the two Group 1 races on Saturday.

--- 

Saturday will see a brilliant card of racing take place at Te Rapa in Hamilton, New Zealand. Follow the meeting armed with HorseTorque, ratings-based analysis of each race.

My Herbie Dyke selection is Race 6: #10 LA CRIQUE (WIN, rated $2.60)

My BCD Group Sprint selection is Race 8: #9 GRAIL SEEKER (WIN, rated $2.30)

My Best Bet at TE RAPA is Race 9: #7 SMOKESHOW (EACH-WAY 1 x 3, rated $4.80)

Why Choose HorseTorque NZ?

• Expert Analysis: Led by Jason Tan, HorseTorque offers sharp analysis, pricing, and speed maps.
• Consistent Wins: Proven track record of identifying winning bets.
• Great for Traders: Focus on “the overs” and use HorseTorque New Zealand markets to trade for profit.
• Ratings-Based Analysis: Complement your form with data-driven insights.

You can subscribe from $10 per week, but it’s best to give it a 3-month run for $120: Subscribe Now.

The MAJOR HorseTorque Value:

This lies in the Oz, HK, and NZ Bundle: This “all-in-one” package over 3 months not only gives you access to New Zealand racing but also includes full access to Gavin's ratings for Australia and Hong Kong, providing even more value and insight.