Keeping The Powder Dry When The Tracks Are Wet

Friday, 4 October 2024 by Jason Tan

Keeping The Powder Dry When The Tracks Are Wet

It’s been a very niggly New Zealand Spring so far with rain adversely affecting race meetings and horse’s racing programs. So, it is with the 10-race program at Tauranga with a Heavy9 track presenting, whereas at Hawera it looks as though a far better Soft5 will be the rating.

It makes things a touch tricky to assess and be confident, as good as Marvin is at smoothing ratings across surfaces, there’s no doubt some runners have their most effective track where their best runs come. There are also horses extending past a Winter prep against faster horses that might not have the fitness miles under their belt in order to deliver close to their best.

So with better racing ahead, patience is still key, if you don’t get a set up you like, then move to the next race.

I’ve picked out a couple of runners that should operate well given the respective track conditions tomorrow.

At Hawera, DEBIT is a mare that has had enough issues to keep her from racing for 440-odd days, but she has been well trialed and looked to move nicely in her most recent. The form from her two starts suggest that she is better than a R65 horse (ran an SR 87 at Matamata when winning) and could be an exciting prospect.

At Tauranga, the 9^th race appeals to me with two horses that shape at value. LETSBRINGTHEBLING looks very well suited to stepping up in trip now and she’ll appreciate the weight-relief. With recent runs delivering a SR/XR 77/81 and WR 91 she leads the pack. TELLEMALIE has some hidden form, with his last couple of runs not too bad, however his peak of 81/83 came over the track and trip, so he’s worth specking to repeat that with the blinkers going on even given bringing him two lengths off that to 75.

* Note LETSBRINGTHEBLING was scratched out of race 9 and is required to start in race 10 instead. She is far less of a chance there off her pegged 79.

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