NZ Cup Carnival at Riccarton: Horsetorque Performance Summary

Tuesday, 21 November 2023 by Gavin Haynes

NZ Cup Carnival at Riccarton: Horsetorque Performance Summary

Day 1: Starting strongly

The NZ Cup Carnival at Riccarton kicked off with LORD DONOVAN winning at a generous 5.5 bookies quote (and closing at $3.7 tote), against a rated price of 3.0. He became the ‘Horsetorque pin-up horse’ winning on each of the three days. Some effort from horse and trainer.

MYSTIC PARK was rated 3.2, drifted to $6.5 with bookies and closed at $5.7 on the tote. He beat THE HANGOVER (rated 2.8) and they delivered a $11.90 quinella. Both were ‘backs’ in the morning.

NEST EGG was another highlight, with the market correcting from an opening of $4.5 to a close of $3.3, below its rated price of 4.2, but he was still a successful ‘back’.

In the G1 2000 Guineas the favourite and winner CROCETTI was well-identified, with the value at a big price being with TALISKER, who ended up running a strong 2^nd. He was available at $31/$6.5 each-way with bookies and closed at $26.90/$4.3, a significant over compared to the rated 12.7.

IFFIDIDIT (rated 11.7) and RICHARD STOMPER (rated 3.4) filled the quinella in the last at $96.50 and each was available at $14 and $21/$5 respectively in the lead-up to race start.

Day 2: Maintaining the gallop

Continuing his impressive streak, LORD DONOVAN was heavily backing from $3.5 to $1.7, and was rated 1.8 and a recommended ‘back’ by Horsetorque NZ.

MY DEGREE, blew out to $41.4 from a 16.8 rating, offering a lucrative opportunity for risk-takers who wanted to ‘play the overs small’.

PUNTURA was an excellent result, with his odds shortening from $19 fixed to a $13.8 closing tote price, and he ran right up to the 7.7 rating. Importantly although the favourite IT’S BUSINESS TIME ran well, we wanted to avoid her at even-money given she rated 3.5 with us. A great case of shopping the overs and getting the result. She was given every chance in the running, but didn’t run up to her $2.1 closing price.

MR FARENHEIT’s (rated 3.5) odds closed at $17.4, highlighting the value of Marvin’s raw assessment even though the race overall was an unappealing betting proposition.

Day 3: Hitting the line hard

The final day was a fill-up for Horsetorque NZ followers.

The first two races saw the overs and recommended plays run very well, starting with FIFITA (rated 3.9) winning at $4.6 after being widely available at $5. MCKHAN (rated 5.0) and UGO (rated 8.9) quinella’d the second at $16.20 and were available to back at $6 & $13/$4 (UGO a 1x3 play) respectively.

PERFECT SCENARIO (rated 4.7) and WATCH OUT (rated 2.8) clearly rated the top-two, delivered a quinella of $15.5 and were available to back at $15 and $4.0 respectively with bookies through out the day – superb prices!

A key 1x3 outlay on the card was NOBLE KNIGHT (rated 5.8) and he won very nicely at $15/$4.5, closing at $10.2/$3.5.

The figures from Wednesday pointed to MARIA FARINA (rated 6) and IMWONDERFULTONIGHT (rated 2.6) being the horses to beat in the Stewards and they didn’t disappoint. IMWONDERFULTNOIGHT (available at $4.5, closed 2.6) was a certainty beaten after receiving significant interference just after jumping which had her settle a clear last. She then had to make her run on the inside of the track, which was probably inferior going on the day. She missed by a nose, but with MARIA FARINA winning (closing $8.8 on the tote) and making up a Q of $15.3 it still meant a very profitable race outcome!

LORD DONOVAN (rated 3.9) again proved his worth, closing at $2.2 on the tote from an available $4.5 fixed. MAHRAHHAN (rated 5.4) & NEST EGG (rated 2.5) delivered the quinella ($18.30) in the NZ Cup and for good shoppers each could be backed at $13 and $4.2 respectively – an outstanding result.

To close the carnival, BETTY SPAGHETTI won at a tidy $5.1 from a rating of 3.2, a nice cherry on the top of a very successful week.

Horsetorque New Zealand is starting to crank up into the Summer of racing. Each Saturday and feature meeting will see race-by-race previews to complement the ratings. Every other meeting will see raw ratings provided and runner comments ‘best bets’ style. Tell your friends and get involved- giddyup!

Horsetorque NZ is a worthy extension of Gavin’s work with Nathan, and of course the database, known as ‘Marvin’. It’s great to be involved, cheers, Jason Tan.