Caulfield 21/9 Review

Sunday, 22 September 2024 by Gavin Haynes

The Magic One takes Buckeroo to 114/109 in a big G1 win.

We were behind the 8 Ball from the get when Quantum Cat was most disappointing on face value, we predicted 95 from him and got 92/94. so not as bad as looked.  I noted in my comment that the winner Whiskey on The Hill  was coming off a career best XR 90 at 1800m and would need to go up another peg to win here and boy did he rating 98/99 relishing the 2000m. His win bought cheers from those who laid  Flamin Romans who in retrospect i under rated. He did have XR 98 2 back in that handy Lincoln Rocks Lauding form line it was that SR 59 in SA last start that caused my doubt and again i break my own rules about laying horses with less than 10 starts. 96/96 is a nice new line for him. 3rd placed was 6yo Corona Lad who was a 99 horse back in 2022 and showed a glimmer last start with 92/96 and followed that with 94/99 when best home and may just be getting back to best.

HTF Whiskey On the Hill and Corona Lad

54/52 from the $1.60 fav Federer left the barn baffled having no answers for the stewards queries, we will stay tuned on him as something clearly amiss. The key being the ratings held up with the $10 rated Regal Zeus winning (98/94)after being backed in from $12.and we found the trifecta in our next 3 and all were value. I also suggested Nails Murphy was worth laying again but 97/95 franks his improved effort last start and he will get a base rating upgrade  now.

I noted the winner of R3 Poifect as a Money Mover in the morn after being $5.5 to $3.4, she was into  $2.50 at the jump, she was confirmed Sr 99 1600m+ last time in. 91/95 as she held off the fast finishing Anahita who as if on cue as I had written about the effect of the Magic One. Her only glimmer in 15 starts was an XR 97  the same T&D last time in and franks it here with 91/97. He gets a base upgrade. Our 2nd LOTD Sassy Boom was gone 200m out with 77/81.

HTF Anahita

R4 was Listed for the 3yo Fillies and I said Silmarillion was very layable, yet he was into $2.80 in the morning but couldnt sell him at $3.80 by the jump.It was only start 3 for Lilac and that Sr90 2 back was 11 better than standard I predicted 86 from her and got 82/87 The Black Booker was runner up Declichy Boulevard 81/93 was +12, had 2 lengths on 3rd and XR was6 better than winner

HTF Declichy Boulevard

R5 The money just kept coming for Another Wil and he was into $1.60 by the jump and  he was again just too good, he followed up XR 110 resuming with only 98/93? Home 23.9 at 1400m, compare that to Jimmystar lin the next home 22.1, sure 1100m but thats about 10 lengths. . ! Runner up was the $9.8 rated Wishlor Lass who was a Gold Miner briefly with $16 available, was into $13 by the jump. 92/87 was strange from her here.  

That Jimmystar win was R6,  we know he has talent with XR's of 115 and 106 on resume. My concern was the the 1100m was too short, but  he melted the clock with 108/111. He can only get better over further. Once the penny drops with this one watch out. he grabbed leader Ashford Street who I though was over the top but 108/96, shows the glaring difference in each horses last 400m. Rey Magnerio has been so good to us and he was an eye catcher for 3rd with 106/108 a step up from that SR 104 last time in. Commemorative 101/104 also VG.. Chinny Boom awful with 84/76

I nearly covered myself in glory in R7 when our top pick Gold Miner Future History lead to the shadows. Rated $3.8 he was $18, a 102 horse who produced 103/100.

That prompted this email from our number one ticket holder Willo, I have been with him twice when he has had $20000 plus day and he nearly did it again

"Hi Gav your ratings and comments always go to another level in Spring. Keep it coming. God dam it I picked your best four with your numbers and comments that stood around the country  and did an all up on Saturday. Yes it’s a hard luck story, in the last leg with Future History, watching that last  furlong I lost my mind!!! Exhilarating day at the pub with mates  that was almost my best day ever!

 I had an all up multi up for a win Perrenial wins at $3.20 in Sydney then Mishani Lily on the gold coast wins at $3.20 into Eliyass in Sydney wins at $4.00 into Future History in Melbourne at $17.10 paying 700/1 had $50 on that to win $35K and got done."

Its true sometimes you would rather nearly win $100K than win $100

Beaten by ex Kiwi Positivity who is confirmed SR 97 but being a staying type I was expecting a flat one 2nd up before peaking next time out but we got a career best 104/102. This is exactly wwhat I talk about when I mention the Matrix, I don't know how many times I have been beaten out of big collects by horses running a career peak and worse thing is they often never repeat/. This is why we bet 1 x 3  Gear Up franked XR104 1st up with XR102 here with Saint George 102/101 the only other noteworthy run.

R8 was the G1 Underwood and 4th pick Buckeroo who was confirmed XR 107 going in and the Magic One took him to a new level with 114/109  he had 4 on $61 runner up Huetor (100/100) who was value whilst  we dodged the 3rd placed bad vale Pericles where 98/88 was weak.

Top pick Angel Capital coming off XR 97 was a value winner of the G3  Guineas Prelude with 104/108 bringing him right into Guineas calculatiions Runner up Public Attention was only making 3rd trip to the races and 102/105 after a debut 95/96 a nice step forward and he looks to be looking for the mile as well. The Magic One on Private Life caught the eye late with XR 104 with Wandaruah 100 and Feroce 101 both get ticks.

the day ended as it started with a surprise as $31 Kundalini wiped out most Quaddies. Only start 6 and triple confirmed XR 89 but you have heard me talk about that 10 point jump in a runner somewhere inside 10 runs, we got 99/97 here, He beat top pick and 98 horse A Little Deep  who rated 97. Revolutionary Miss, Extra Two and Comrade Rosa all get ticks.

Busy week ahead with Manikato night Friday night, G3 Sandown Stakes on Grand Final day we also have Shatin Saturday this week which is my worst night mare, its Ansett Stakes day at Mornington on Sunday and I hope I can at least set the markets there.