Flemington Review 14/9

Sunday, 15 September 2024 by Gavin Haynes

Import Point King Into the Melbourne  Cup off 108/115 in the Archer

As per usual with Melbourne the weather forecast was not even vaguely accurate, if those BoM dudes were paid ti[sters they would quickly be out of a job, The rain came and persisted and we slid through the Grades finishing on a Heavy track.

We kicked off the day in superb fashion with the $6.90 rated Gold Miner Moby Dick winning the 1st at $12. he was triple confirmed SR 91 in debut campaign and 91/96 here says he has come on. Headwall having only 4th run in a year returned to best when 2nd with 89/94., he has 93/95 on resume just over a year ago, So there is a race for him soon. Fav Nadal was weak with 85/85.

HTF  - Headwall

R2 and nothing better than staying out and watching an unders horse win, I broke one of my rules in suggesting the Winner Dawn Service was a lay when Laying in 7 horse fields is a recipe for disaster. Her 92/88 was what we expected from the 91 horse. Daggers 88/86 and Wonder Boy 80/79 both very disappointing

The 3rd proved a bit of a blow out with the $14 winner  Bellatrix  Star  87/85 turning the tables on a disappointing Drifting 67/61, the winner ended last campaign with an XrR90 and  resumed with XR 91 so at start 7 was open to improvement but it was hard to see it turning the tables equal top pick Bold Bastille ran 2nd with 82/76 in a very off little race.

R4 saw our $1.60 rated hot pot Growing Empire win at a delicious $2.15 83/86 and we can see the 2 1100m straight races have rated slowly, noted going forward. AA class above as expected.

R5 was The Archer and a Golden Ticket into the Melbourne Cup awaited the winner. Our 1 x 3 play and 112 horse Bereshire Breeze worked home stoutly for 3rd with an XR 113. The question I asked about the winner in import Point King was how much improvement off XR 101 +11  in win at 2nd Oz start. Turns out  a stack, 108/115 and Lloyd and team Williams have another into the Cup and off those numbers you know he is going to be in my market. The bubble burst for Dashing Duchess with 88/90 whilst veteran stayer Hit the Road Jack pulled one from his nether regions with a career best 106/113. he was a confirmed Sr 105 horse back in his prime and did beat Dashing Duchess at 2800m 4 back. Imagine if he had a got a run in the Cup would of been a fairy story.

R6  What the hell did they give Chryasoar for breakfast, the Waller trained 4yo was resuming and did win a G2 at a mile as 3yo but that was 91/87 and that was his best ever run so where does 110/123 come from. Home 23 flat the fastest of the day by panels. The runner up Niccolino Vito running an huge peak  108/113 in the same race mind you he did have 116/113 back in 2022. 99 horse Holymanz  ran 3rd rating 97/100 which supports the winner. Pass marks for Arran Bay XR 99 El Rocko 99 Makram 98 El Soleado 104 Bandersnatch 96. Devoted a shadow of former self

What did I say in R7 about always putting a sole leader in your quaddie when the $14 rated Grinzinger Belle lead all the way and won by 4 113/102 We have XR 106 +12 when 2nd to Skybird last time in and that runner franked that later in day.  97 horse See You In heaven ran 2nd with 97/99 and our 1 x 3 Gold Miner Alesephina ran 3rd with 96/95. Fortunate Kiss and Lady Jones  both XR 94 get a pass. Quintessa bounced to the moon with 68/67

R8 We got all we planned with Pride of Jenni returning to best and setting up a slick time 113/101. Note later in day the track deteriorated so the sectionals are a smidge light. Australia's premier WFA miler Mr Brightside was at best with 115/108. Via Sistina 89/78 didnt let down on that track at all.  All it had to do was runa drum and my day would of been a lot bigger

Our Quaddies were looking even better when the $6.60 rated Arkanssaw Kid won the Bobby Lewis after being back from $9 into $6.50 on race day. He was confirmed Sr 103 last time in, resumed with XR 104 and peaked here with 106/107. Runner up 4yo mare Skybird has been good to us, she won a G2 in Sa last time in with SR 106 after interestingly rated XR 102  beating Grinzinger belle. 106/111 here has here primed to peak 3rd up. Buenos Nochos who had gone 108, 109 109 early last Spring ran best race since with 104/99

HTF -  Skybird

I wrote in my comment that the $8.60 rated 99 horse Berkeley Square was great value at $12, I had marked him down 4 and in retrospect have to learn to trust those +8 +9 +10 TOF's. i got an email form a long termer who is finding  a stack of hidden winners using those making up many length at the their previous, he was +11 1st up  well he was into $6 by the jump and returned 99/98. Yes value but he should of been top pick and he won like it. King Magnus is so honest and was much better suited back down from 2000m 95/96 was rock solid. Mission of Love Xr 97 and Green Fly XR 98 both get ticks.

All in all a rock solid day, The shifting track is always a chaos creator but things held up. A piece of the $3300 Quaddie , Gold Miners Alesephina  and Berkeley breeze both found the podium and best of the day Growing Empire won. 

Onto G1 Underwood Day and we have the needle in the vein, my calendar was wrong as I thought Newcastle Cup day was last Friday but it is this Friday and I will run my eyes over those markets fingers crossed whilst happy valley is on Weds.