Australia Cup Day Review

Tuesday, 2 April 2024 by Gavin Haynes

Evergreen 9yo Cascadian causes the upset going back to back in the G1 Australian Cup.

The first race of note was the Open Class Furphy Mile R3. We expected 96 from winner Arran Bay and we got 99/99 in a  classic example of what Andrew Beyer called OXO. He ran a career peak 100/98 2 back then bounced with 85/94 and bounced straight back with the 99/99. Rated at $4.70 was $4.90 to $4.40 before a strong win. The eye catcher was runner up in import Galeron at 2nd Oz start after being beaten 10 lengths on Oz debut. 98/104 at first go the mile and looks primed to peak 3rd up. El Soleado was another OXO example as if to ram home the lesson. He had won 3 on the bounce peaking with 97/102 the bounced with 74/82 and bounced straight back rating 94/102. Our Gold Miner was strong through the line for 6th rating 93/100

HTF - Galeron

The next race I want to talk about was R5 The Listed Bob Hoysted. We rated winner Sans Doute at $5.50 and she was $6.8 into $.50 getting home in a staggering 21.4 to make it 4 on the bounce. We had her a 99 horse going in and got 95/103 smack bang on target. Runner Up Najem Suhail was also overs and looked the winner until the shadows but 94/91 showed the difference in the 2 last 400m's of each of them.

R6 was a BM90 and we had Sea What I See on top at $2.80 not having a speed rating from the new The Heath track at Caulfield. He was $3.20 into $3  before a dominant win and I certainly noted how effervescent good judge Brad Davidson was about this girl and she made it 4 from 4 this time in with an arrogant 2.3 length win with 97/102 a lovely step forward. She is going places. The dominance of the win is shown  in the 88/90 rating of the runner up.

HTF - Sea What I See

R7 was the Listed Sunlight Classic for the 3yo's and top pick Estriella made it 3 on the bounce this time, she has been very good to us and she was dominant here. The straight can amplify numbers but 116/109 was outstanding,  franking her SR 105 2 back. She is a classy filly going places. The runner up Arkansaw Kid who ended last campaign with a G2 2nd surprised 1st up at 1100m. 106/100 was excellent and  he will only improve stripping fitter over further. 3rd placed Saltaire was also first up and had 1 stand out run SR 103 last time in franked by a SR 104 on a very heavy track 2 stanzas ago with 104/101 franking all of that. Hedged was 2nd best home despite being beaten 4 lengths 100/98 was better than looked.

R8 was the G1 Australia Cup and we had 4 chances and they filled the Tri with Mr Brightside quite disappointing in the run home. I wasn't convinced about him in the Cox Plate at the 2040m where he was edged out. I said on Saturday that seemed to cancel my doubts about a strong 2000m and they arose big time again 94/86 was just plain ordinary. The winner Cascadian had finished just behind at his previous run with an XR 110  just 1 below Mr B. He made it back to back Aust Cups with 113/107  franked by his SR116 in winning last year. He grabbed a gallant Pride Of Jenni in the shadows with the bold front runner proving 2000m was no issue with 112/100. her racing style will always create neg split numbers Atishu was 2 lengths off them with 105/100

R9 was the Listed Roy Higgens at 2600m where our top pick Glentaneous but has basically been up since October, despite a little freshen in the middle and raced like a horse wanting the paddock was quite disappointing with 88/96. I clearly underrated the  winner in Kiwi Mark Twain coming off a 3rd in the 3200m Auckland Cup. he was coming in +14, +27 and +17 and I just thought the 600m drop back in trip would play against but 98/114 was outstanding and surely on that the Sydney Cup is on the radar. Strawberry Rock has been good to us in his career including a win at his previous where his XR 108 was +8 and his 96/107 has him back at his peak run of last campaign. 3rd placed Mostly Cloudy was a Gold Miner for the quick early on, he was well backed $12.5 to $7.50 before an eye catching 95/107.

R10 saw the $9.80 rated He's Our Bonneval returned to best winning at $13, really impressing the clock running 81.7 for the 1400m rating 107//106. Runner Up Belle Et Rich was smashed in the betting, $15 into $6.50 and was best home in 22.5 rating 106/106. She peaks 3rd up next time out. 4yo Euphoric was eye catching in 5th after not having the clearest passage  102/105 1st up suggests he is also in for a good campaign.

HTF - Belle Et Rich,  Euphoric.