The Group race features at Hawke’s Bay provide two classic battles of the sexes!

Friday, 27 September 2024 by Jason Tan

El Vencedor (Joe Doyle) wins the Gr. 1 Bonecrusher New Zealand Stakes. Photo: Kenton Wright

The Group race features at Hawke’s Bay provide two classic battles of the sexes!

Firstly in an even G1 Arrowfield Stud stakes it’s a case of measuring a top rating mare in form with poor tactical prospects, against a quick-improving gelding that should get the favours in the running.

MALT TIME has drawn barrier 14 and will settle near the rear of the field from a very awkward starting point and has an inexperience apprentice riding her. She has the best peaks figures of the field, can finish as quickly as anything she meets, but how much of a start will she be giving some key players when the Group 1 gets serious from the half-mile?

EL VENCEDOR was ‘spanked’ by MALT TIME when fresh-up at Ruakaka, but as I mentioned on GET ON, he missed the start, copped a very tough trip and still fought okay. He can improve to the level required second-up and will run a top race close to the speed. Over 1600m he won’t out-sprint MALT TIME and a few others, but he can beat them building into the race at the right time.

Whilst the ratings (HorseTorque in this instance) must always be the basis of any analysis and respected, when it comes to WFA tactics are significant and it’s EL VENCEDOR who shapes as a top each-way bet.

The G2 Hawke’s Bay Guineas pits one filly against a mob of colts and geldings. CAPTURED BY LOVE ran sensational figures when beaten by Alabama Lass three-weeks ago and out-rated the boys who ran over the trip on the day. They included POETIC CHAMPION and SAVAGLEE amongst others, in a race that was run at a slow speed.

I have tempered her clear ratings advantage for two reasons, firstly the fact she’s unlikely to receive any favours from barrier 11. She’ll have to either work early to find a spot or make her run covering a lot of extra ground wide. If it’s a slow tempo, she might be able to ‘creep’ into the race if jockey Kennedy is on his game. Secondly, she must be a slight query at 1400m given her 2yo form, but the fact she delivered a SR115 (!!) last time might alay those concerns somewhat – she was very strong off a strong tempo.

Given all those things, she still shapes as a bet though, and it might be that the filly overcome can tactical adversity to win.

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HorseTorque NZ - Key Runners:

Hastings

Race 2:            1 BELLES FATE (rated price $3.20)

Race 4:            1 SLIPPER ISLAND (rated price $3.50)

Riccarton

Race 3:            3 GOLDIE’S CHANCE (rated price $4.30)

Race 9:            1 THE NUMBER ONE SON (rated price $2.90)

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