Identifying the Early Overs Tomorrow in NZ
Asgard was very impressive breaking his maiden at Otaki.
Identifying the Early Overs Tomorrow in NZ
Shatin G1 Review
We had a yeilding track on Sunday and its really quite off in HK, the surface is like carpet and the Daily Variant was only 100.5, thats still a Good track in Oz, in the 10 years I have been doing it I have never seen a track what we would call rain affected. When you consider NZ often has tracks with DV's 110, or 10% slower than average, yet when the rain comes results are always mixed.
Romantic Warrior was huge, never on the track, never looked comfortable but still pulled out 116/112 from the Japanese runner Prognosis 115/109, he is an absolute super star.
Golden Sixty
The Championships Day 2 Review
Have you ever seen anything like it as Pride of Jenni rates SR 118 to make her a triple confirmed SR 118 in her last 5 with a eak of 121. What a star, I just love her..
R1 was the Listed Fernhill at a mile for the 2yo's where my advice was to stay put, $2.90 top pick Broadsiding was $3.05 into $2.3 before winning with 86/90 a new peak but by no means anything to write home about. His dominance was shown by the 77/78 of the runner up who was 2 lengths back.
R2 was the Listed South Pacific Classic and again my advice was to stay out which proved sage with the $12 winner Panic hard to find and a loser avoided is the same as backing an even money winner. ...
The Turn Of Foot rating
The TOF rating
The Turn of Foot is basically the difference between the Speed Rating and the Sectional rating with some alteration for beaten margin
I wanted to write something about the Turn Of Foot indicator which more often than not applies to those settling away from the pace, we all know that our racing is very sit and sprint in nature and settling in the first 5 has a huge advantage and many of these runners neg split , ie go out faster than they come home but often those that make ground from back and are well beaten get overlooked when doing the form. For years if a horse was beaten more than 3 lengths with no excuses I would be looking at some sort of recent form penalty but I am now much more lenient on those with TOF's of +5 or more.
The TOF is ...
The Championships Day 1 Review
Circle Of Fire firms into Sydney Cup Fav after smashing the clock in the 2600m Chairmans
Day 1 of The Championships and the track and track staff did an amazing job, the Daily Variant was only +1.4 which in my world is Dead-Slow track far better than expected with the meeting in some doubt 24 hours earlier.
R1 was the G3 Kindergarten for the 2yo boys and our $1.80 top pick Espionage won arrogantly by 3 at $2.40 with 106/95 a big new peak. That SR may prove a bit high as he did have the advantage of the first use of the track.. The ratings show the dominance of his win with the runner up Roselyn's Star rating 95/82
R2 was the G2 Chairmans at 2600m, the final lead up to the this ...
Rosehill Tancred Day Review
The Kiwi star now has the Oaks well within her sights
The first race to look at is R2 the G3 Neville Selwood at 2000m and here our $2.30 rated top pick was 103 horse Serpentine and he was off the canvas showing all the Waterhouse M&B to win rating 102/102 He held off Fav Zeyrek whom we dodged rating him $6.10, we had him a 100 horse going in and got 100/102. There is a race for him soon. They had 2 lengths on 3rd placed Renaissance Woman who rated 93/98 as we found the First 4 in our top 4.
R3 was the G3 Baillieu for the 2yo's and top pick Linebacker whose SR 90 on debut was 8 better than standard who showed tenacity ...
Australia Cup Day Review
Evergreen 9yo Cascadian causes the upset going back to back in the G1 Australian Cup.
The first race of note was the Open Class Furphy Mile R3. We expected 96 from winner Arran Bay and we got 99/99 in a classic example of what Andrew Beyer called OXO. He ran a career peak 100/98 2 back then bounced with 85/94 and bounced straight back with the 99/99. Rated at $4.70 was $4.90 to $4.40 before a strong win. The eye catcher was runner up in import Galeron at 2nd Oz start after being beaten 10 lengths on Oz debut. 98/104 at first go the mile and looks primed to peak 3rd up. El Soleado was another OXO example as if to ram home the lesson. He had won 3 on the bounce peaking with 97/102 the bounced with 74/82 and bounced straight ...
William Reid Stakes Day Review
Is the Kiwi star going as well as in the Spring
The first piece of Black type was R2 the Listed Valley Pearl for the 2yo's and for those that played the strong debut numbers of Growing Empire held up, we had $2.20 and he was too strong winning at $4.40 but 88/84 was a big step down from his 96/97 over 1100m on debut.. Nothing else here raises the eyebrows.
The next piece of Black type was R5, The G2 Sunline for the Fillies & Mares. The winner Eternal Flame has gone to a whole new level this campaign following her G3 win last start where she rated 100/103 with 101/104. Runner Up Rumbled Again was 6 lengths off her at previous start ...
Slipper day Review
Import Post Impressionist makes a huge impact on Oz debut
We kicked off with top rated Electrica rated at $4.2 winning the 1st at $5, he won by 3 running a huge new career peak of 103/98. His XR's just keep improving the time in and it looks like the penny has finally dropped.
R2 was the G3 Manion over 2400m and my advice was to stay out with the import Post Impressionist heading the markets but i should of trusted my eyes, I put him up at $3.30 and for those that played he was a nice overlay winner at $3.90. He was staggeringly impressive rating 114/116 in a 3 length win and on that has the Sydney Cup at his mercy. I suggested VRC Derby winner Manzoice was on the way back after 100/107 last time out. He ran 2nd franking ...
Can Hayasugi make some history
Only 5 Blue Diamond winners have won the Golden Slipper, the latest was the Peter Snowden trained Sepoy back in 2011 and the last filly and only the second filly was Courtza way back in 1989, the first filly was Midnight Fever back in 1987. That has been followed by Bounding Away in 1986, Manikato in 1978 and John's Hope in 1972.
Since Sepoy's win only 2 Blue Diamond winners have found the podium , Shamaready the next year and
Rosehill Review 16/3
It was a big day at Rosehill kicking off with the $5 rated Super Bright winning at a Gold Mining $8.50, we followed that with the $2.30 rated Wymark winning at $3.40 before we got to our first bit of Black type
Caulfield Review 16/3
Gold Miners feasting - Zardozi
Its been a Gold Mining fill up on Saturday but Oaks winner was a huge result, rated 2nd pick at $3.90 she was way too good at a staggering $11
"Oaks winner ZARDOZZI didn't fire a shot first up but strips fitter is suited by step up in trip and although will be ready to peak next time out but does have 98/102 in a G2 mile win on her way to that Oaks success."
That was on the back of the $3.30 ...
Randwick Guineas Day Review
R2 was the G2 Riesling for the 2yo Fillies and my advice was to stay out as there were so many unknowns. We rated the winner Erno's Cube at $4 and she was $6 to $4. but only rated 79/80 and the winner was the only sub 23 second runner for the last 400m running 22.7 but these are the 2nd string 2yo baby girls and nothing worth following from here.
R3 was the Listed cCity Stakes at 2000m and our strong 1 x 3 play Almania came out and I hope you all followed him up on Sunday where I had him $1.70 when he won the Canberra Cup at 9/4. We ended with Military Mission on top and he ran 3rd as a $12 Gold Miner. He ended last campaign with 110/110 and he picked up where he left off with 103/110.The winner Serpentine is a staying type who surprised winning 1st up, he ...
Newmarket Day Review
Again apologies for the late scratching debacle. the early start played havoc with my automated processes. Thanks to the clients that email me to let me know.
We kicked off the day with our special Hedged winning. I predicted 95 and we got 92, he will only strip fitter next time out. and Sangroper Hanchi chased valiantly and has settled into life in the East.
R2 was the Australia Cup Prelude and I stated top pick Young Werther had finally seen the penny drop. He got out to 2000m last time in and won twice with XR's of 104 and 106 so 108/103 here when only 2nd up suggests he has come back perhaps even better..The Australian Cup will be ideal. Fawkner Park ran the best closing splits in the race but was over 3 lengths off the winner. 96/97 was good and he will strip fitter and ...
Can Lucky Sweynesse bounce back
Over the last month here and in Oz we have seen a number of horses get beaten by pure weight of money and we dodged LUCKY SWEYNESSE when nothing went right as a $1.30 Fa. The run was obviously queried by Stewards with ZP stating he wanted to settle much closer but the horse lacked his usual early speed. He still got home +12 when finally clear and on that the return to 1400m looks ideal, a trip he is 3 for 3 at and I think he can bounce straight back. Looks a sound Win bet Bonus Bets tyle at $2.30. ZP is off to stick with 2nd pick but we get JMac who has a 100% record on the galloper.
ZP sticks with BEAUTY ETERNAL who comes off a G1 2nd with an XR 111 and the drop back in trip holds no fears as he hasnt ...
Flemington Review
The first of the Black type at Flemington was R4 the Listed Furphy for the 2yo's and the $1.80 rated Bold Bastille showed that 1000m was his go with a lovely display of speed 97/94 was rock solid with Drifting taking another step at start 2 with 94/94, they had panels on the rest and the only 2 to take out of this.
R6 was only a BM84 but I had to make mention of Another Wil who was smashed into 2's on by the jump and he toyed with them to make it 4 from 6. Following on from 2 big 3 length wins this time he won by 5 rating 109/117, those are G1 numbers we can follow him wherever they go.
R8 was the G1 Australian Guineas for the 3yo's and we did find the winner Southport Tycoon as an overlay following on from his XR 103 first up he showed he was a much bigger stronger beast this time around with 117/118 in a fast run edition. ...
Randwick Review
R4 was the first of the Black type races for the day. The G2 Skyline for the 2yo boys and we had the the Slipper Fav Storm Boy odds on but he was just smashed in the betting starting at $1.18 and he did win easily enough but 94/92 was hardly awe inspiring with that SR 4 down on his SR 98 in the Magic Millions. We compare his times with Straight Charge whose last 2 SR's have been 103 and 99 but both at 1100m. Mind you still far superior so I am not so sure the Slipper is as clean cut as many think
R6 was the Sweet Embrace at G2 level for the 2yo girls and the Fav Manaal was heavily backed and franked that Lady Of Camelot formline after running 2nd to her first up but 89/83 was well below the boys and franked 89/92 from her first up. SO on this the girls were inferior to the boys today
R7 was the G1 Chipping Norton and again we saw ...
The Day a $1.30-New Zealand Derby Favourite Was Beaten
Orchestral winning the Gr.2 Eagle Technology Avondale Guineas (2100m). Photo: Trish Dunell
Rumble - Horsetorque TV
Hey crew I am trying to expand content a little and have started a Rumble Channel - Horsetorque TV I have a site tour video and a video on how the number generator work, head to https://rumble.com/c/c-790325 and give us a follow. I will be more and more active in the weeks ahead with a few requests of some live video of the form ...
Rosehill Review
R4 was the G2 Silver Slipper and our good thing in the Waterhouse trained Straight Charge rated at $1.70 was again outstanding. Home in 22.2 rating 99/97. He has the best numbers of all the 2yo's thus far and has untapped potential. Gai also has the runner up Espionage who rated 94/96 when first up and did really stick to guns. Home 22.1 which was faster than the winner. Not expecting much between them when they step to 6 furlongs
The Listed Parramatta Cup was R5 and the winner More Felons was hard to find. He was first up at 1900m and having only 3rd run in Oz but found absolute best rating 97/103. It is often the case with imports they find their best in 2nd campaign. Gold Miners were cheering the runner up Almania, we rated him at $4.90 and he was beaten a head at $17. 96/99 was very good 2nd up and he ...
Caulfield Review
Firstly thanks for the response to the mail out, I have responded to some and hope to get back to you all but thank you all for your response and feedback but it would certainly appear there are enough of us here more than happy to take Oz back to $21 a week. More on what has come out of that as the week develops but poor Nathan got clipped by a taxi bike and took a mighty tumble, he copped a deep gash to the head and will be picking asphalt out of his legs for a month. He is fine, a little shaken up obviously so join me in sending him some love and healing energy. SO we just havent had the chance to really sit and down for a week
Caulfield
R1 We kicked off the day with my special Dunkeld getting us off to a flying start in a slowly run sit and sprint. He was +14 showing how strong through the line he was. Runner UP
Sunday Spectacle
Can G1 superstar Romantic Warrior do it again
I think there are only 2 that have claims to beat him
ROMANTIC WARRIOR comes off a 77 day break after a big win this T&D on International day that made it 12 wins from 17 5 of those at the highest level. He has won 2 of 3 fresh with his only fresh miss being that 4th on Oz debut before that big Cox Plate win. That gate is no spoil and champions have a way of overcoming the odds but the $1.70 is too short for mine.
VOYAGE BUBBLE was smashed into odds on last start before grabbing his Maiden G1 at mile with 111/115 outstanding and franked by an XR 115 the run prior. He steps to 2000m a ...
Will the real La Crique please stand up?!
Group One winner La Crique. Photo: Trish Dunell
Karaka Millions 2024 - Analysis by HorseTorque NZ
The best on course, raceday experience is the Karaka Millions at Ellerslie and after track renovations, it’s super to be back!
For those unfamiliar it’s a 6-race twilight card with huge prizemoney for connections and an incredible atmosphere.
Hot horse racing from New Zealand is about to be served!
The next 2-months or so in NZ racing is an undoubted ‘hot’ period with Group 1/2 and high-stakes racing most weekends being served up in delicious fashion!
Those meetings will be covered by HorseTorque NZ providing race-by-race comments and full markets.
Coming up:
NZ Cup Carnival at Riccarton: Horsetorque Performance Summary
NZ Cup Carnival at Riccarton: Horsetorque Performance Summary
Day 1: Starting strongly
The NZ Cup Carnival at Riccarton kicked off with LORD DONOVAN winning at a generous 5.5 bookies quote (and closing at $3.7 tote), against a rated price of 3.0. He became the ‘Horsetorque pin-up horse’ winning on each of the three days. Some effort from ...
Caulfield Review 18-11
There was certainly an on speed bias at Caulfield so ' worth of noting for the future
R4 Thoroughbred Club Stakes 3yo F G3 1200m
Our 1 x 3 play here was Saltaire who ran 3rd in a slowly run affair rating 83/92 which was down on expectations confirms my suspicions that she is better kept at 1100m. The winner Brazen Style was only having start 3 coming off a soft MDN win with an SR 77 so her 93/99 was a big step up and suggests she is very much on the up. Runner up Miraval Rose was also only having 3rd start coming off a 3 length MDN win with 93/98 also some very nice progression. We have seen over the years that at some point in a horses first 5 to 10 runs there is a big jump in ratings usually around 10 points, when that happens is the hard thing to assess. Our 1 x 3 strategy kept us safe.
R5 Village Stake Open Listed 1100m
A great result for us here with Gold Miner Hypothetical rated at $2.30 winning after being ...
Flemington 11-11 Review
R1 BM90
WATADEEL just lapped up the return to a mile, his last mile run was back in March where he was a strong winner 89/106 (+18), so no surprise to see 102/107 here. Von Hauke also relished his first run at a mile 101/104 was a career best and he had 2.5 lengths on 3rd. He is worth following. Our Gold Miner Excelleration was 5th but his 23.1 was actually fastest last 400m in the race with 91/101 (+10) a rock solid return.
HTF - Von Hauke
R2 Always Welcome Stakes Listed 1000m Open
We again find the trifecta in our top 4. General Beau finally got a 1200m win at 12 attempt at the trip and 89/92 shows us how. Top pick Parisal 87/91, with our 1 x 3 Gold Miner It'sourtime 86/92. They had panels on the others
R3 The Amanda Elliot Listed 3yo
Top pick Schwarz was only having 3rd ...
Cup Day Highlights
Cup Day Speed Rating Highlights
Without a Fight 116
The Map 115
Soulcombe 107
Sheraz 105
Forgot You 104
Roll On High 104
Pascero 102
Wiggum 102
Joliestar 101
Warning 101
Sectional rating Highlights
Without A Fight 120
Soulcombe 115
Sheraz 111
Roll On High 111
The Map 109
Joliestar 106
Ashrun 105
Pascero 105
Wiggum 104
Bermadez 103
Roll On High was a great result for us and 104/111 was outstanding and I think could be way above average the HTF from the ...
Flemington Derby Day Review
R1 Carbine Club G3 1600m 3yo
We find the Trifecta in our top 4 with the winner Kaizad rated at $6.60 a winning Gold Miner at $11. Numbers were slick with the winner going on from his 96/98 last start with 108/98. The Horse to follow was the runner up Heman who was peaking 3rd up out at the mile for the first time with 106/105 containing the best splits by far in the race. Brace Mead was also rock solid with 103/101
HTF- Heman
R2 The Archer G3 2500m Open
We find the Quinella in our top 3 in a small field staying race in which I was happy to stay out. The winner ...
Cox Plate Day review
Ashford Street rated at $4.30 won the first at $8.50< Bold Bastille rated at $4.50 won R2 at $5.50
Moonee Valley 28/10 highlights
Moonee Valley 28/10
Speed Rating Highlights
Romantic Warrior 120
Mr Brightside 120
Alligator Blood 119
Duais 115
Gold Trip 114
Zaaki 114
Fangirl 114
Apulia 111
Imperitriz 109
Prowess 106
Antino 105
Tuvalu 104
Verdad 103
Sectional Highlights
Mr Brightside 121
Romantic Warrior 120
Alligator Blood 118
Gold Trip 117
Fangirl 117
Duais 115
Militarize 115
Grinzinger Belle 107
Apulia 106
Antino 105
Prowess ...
Moonee Valley 27/10 Speed and Sectional Highlights
Moonee Valley 27/10
Speed Rating Highlights
Cleveland 102
Vow And Declare 99
Future History 99
She Dances 99
Tobaysure 99
Celui 99
Umgawa 99
Ima Shelby 97
Delecious Tycoon 97
Aintnodeeldun 95
Red Sun Sensation 95
Sectional Rating Highlights
Aintnodeeldun 111
Cleveland 111
Lunar Flare 109
Forgot You 108
So Dazzling 108
Future History 107
Red Sun Sensation 107
Sibaaq 107
Vow And Declare ...
Caulfield Cup Day Review
R2 G3 Neds Classic 3yo 2000m
Riff Rocket was a raging fav starting 3's on and we again see a horse beaten by pure weight of money, they just went oh so slowly the winner Sunsets was actually a Gold Miner rated at $10 winning at $16 but that Sr 83 was 16 points lower than standard. They just walked. Riff Rocket was home 22.6 83/102 +19. I am glad he didn't take off earlier and have a gut buster with his target still 2 weeks away. With that 105/115 2 back ringing loud he will still be our top pick in the Derby. The winner is no slouch and that racing style will ensure he is in the right place in all his races.
R3 G3 Ethereal Stakes 2000m 3yo F
My 1 x 3 play Autumn Angel rated at $3.9 won at $4.6 running down a valiant Tropical Squall who was a bullet dodged starting at $2 when rated $2.40. The winner franked her XR 99 at her previous start with 100/104 here suggesting she can continue to progress towards the Oaks from ...
Shatin Sunday Play Of The Day
Sha Tin Race 7
I think this market is on its head. The resuming CALIFORNIA SPANGLE is quintuple confirmed XR 110 horse last time in and is yet to miss the Quinella in 3 fresh runs winning twice and has found the podium in 7 of 9 at the mile. He is $4.40 somehow and a 1 x 3 Gold Miner at that. The 2's on Fav is BEAUTY ETERNAL who also resumes a genuine good horse a 107 horse every day of the week and does have 1 huge XR of 119. at the mile. unbeaten fresh and at trip. but $1.60 really... STRAIGHT ARRON is a high-class stayer who should need one. CIRCUIT STELLAR continues to run through the line, he has a ...
LIVAMOL CLASSIC DAY @ HASTINGS, NEW ZEALAND
LIVAMOL CLASSIC DAY @ HASTINGS, NEW ZEALAND
12/10/2023
In the heart of New Zealand's Hawke's Bay region, LIVAMOL Classic Day at Hastings beckons, offering a quality 10-race card. With a capricious spring leaving soft & heavy tracks in its wake, anticipation runs high for a potentially drier GOOD 3 or GOOD 4 surface. As seasoned racegoers know, track conditions can be the ultimate wildcard in horse racing, reshaping the odds and strategy, and that's very much been the case during this NZ Spring.
The Gold Miner
I was chatting to an Aussie about the punt here the other night at one of Patong many bars and we got talking about staking plans and betting strategies then hot streaks and big wins. It jolted my memory about the hottest streak i had on the punt when I won 18 weeks on the trot. Prior to that hot streak many moons back I had finally become disciplined in writing down my
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