The Gold Miner

Thursday, 5 October 2023 by Gavin Haynes

I was chatting to an Aussie about the punt here the other night at one of Patong many bars and we got talking about staking plans and betting strategies then hot streaks and big wins. It jolted my memory about the hottest streak i had on the punt when I won 18 weeks on the trot.  Prior to that hot streak many moons back I had finally become disciplined in writing down my betting activity, how much on, what type of bet, even the interest bets and patterns were starting to appear.

Exotics were a money pit and flexi betting hadn't changed the picture, Quaddies are fun and lure one with big payouts but they are a money pit, I can wear Quinella play but Tri's, First 4's Quads and all up win multi's were all quickly taken out of my betting play. I was basically day trading the value then and what I discovered was that the betting account wasn't a gradual climb but came in a series of peaks and troughs and underlying those peaks were always big value plays.

So what I did was simply concentrate on the value runners but I wanted real value so looked for double overlay value with a little wriggle room. I know I have subscribers now who only tackle the double overlays and it continues to #paythe believers. I know I am a far better analyst these days and I have a depth of data never even imagined so I have run a few rules through my data and have a new version of that strategy

The Rules

So the rules are simple, we are looking for horses in the Horsetorque Top 4 that you can get a minimum of 50% more than their Horsetorque rated price and we back them 1 x 3, so if I have a horse rated $4 it would be 4 x 1.5 = 6 so I need $6 to get involved.

To work out the stake simply divide the price you are taking and divide it into 100. 

In this case 100/6 =16.6.

Round that to 17 and you would have 17 the win x 51 the place on the horse.

If we rated a horse at $8 and it was $20 we would simply divide the 20 into 100 and get 5 and would have 5 x 15 on the runner.

My examples are to get a $100 return on win bets but you can do the same plan to take out $10

and the 5 x 15 becomes .5 x 1.5.

I also grade races ABCD and I suggest not betting in the D grade races.

Races of 7 starters or less only pay on first 2 across the line but you get a bigger % if they place and research suggests they are still in play.

The thing with this system it is volatile as it all depends on when you place your bets. A runner may be a selection as soon as markets pop up or if it drifts noticeably but can drop from selections so I generally like to have a cut off time and stick to a routine but sometimes you have to think on your feet.

This a value chasing system and it can have runs of out but can also have runs of great success. I have one client who has used this system for the last 3 carnivals and has made 17% on his money.

Gold Miner results Shatin 10/9

For the example I will use Shatin from the first day of the season and use the HK Tote final prices

R1 D class race so no bet

R2 August Moon Rated $7.7 was $34

Unplaced

O 12 R0

R3 Golden Bull rated $3 was $5.85

4th

O68 R0

R3 Lucky Quality rated 9 was $35

Unplaced

O12 R 0

R4 Rewarding Together Rated $12.7 was $28

Unplaced

O12 R0

R5 Smart Leader rated at $3.1 was $12

2nd $3.40 the place

O32 R R 81

R6 Ruby Sailing rated $2.2 was $3.35

2nd $1.60 the drum

O180 R216

R6 Champion method rated $2.90 was $4.45

1st $4.45/$1.85

Win

O40 R 178

Place

O120 R222

R7 Snaffles Rated $8.1 was $18

Dead Heat 3rd $1.75 the drum

O20 R26

R8 Golden Link rated $5.1 was $15

O28 R0

Kasi Farasi was rated $2.80 and final price was $4.15, only 5 cents short of required and it tumbled in late, it was my Gold Miner in my commentary but for fairness I will leave it out.

R9 Solid Sharaa rated $3.1 was $9

O44 R0

R10 The Golden Scenery rated $7.70 was $16

1st $16 /$3.55

Win

O6 R96

Place O18 R64

Total Outlay $580.

Total return $884.

That's $304 profit and over 50% on your money

That's how the Gold Miner works, simple and effective.