How to play Orchestral at Ellerslie

Friday, 20 September 2024 by Jason Tan

Orchestral and Craig Grylls stride to a phenomenal victory in the Gr.1 Trackside New Zealand Derby (2400m) at Ellerslie. Photo: Trish Dunell

How to play Orchestral at Ellerslie?

Dual Group One-winning mare, ORCHESTRAL will race for the first time as a four-year-old at Ellerslie over 1400m. She’s undoubtedly the most talented horse in the race, but is it the time to be diving into “the sauce”?

Okay, so most markets have ORCHESTRAL slight odds-against, rather than tomato sauce odds (odds-on) to win Race 7 tomorrow. She is first-up off 161-days with one trial under her belt. Added to that is she has 60.5kg to carry and she competes over 1400m. Within those factors there are a few things against her.

ORCHESTRAL is a two-time Group 1 winner, one a 2400m NZ Derby and the other a 2000m Vinery Stakes. She’s the highest quality and rated 110 winning the blue riband at Ellerslie. In fact she’s unbeaten in three starts at that track delivering HorseTorque SRs of 93 (1600m), 110 (2000m) and 110 (2400m), all carrying 55kg.

So the numbers are on the board, but I think it’s fair pegging ORCHESTRAL 2-lengths off those peaks. She can’t be far from flying as connections are mulling big targets in Australia next, so maybe one will get a little more insight when she parades pre-race. With that in mind, she presents at $2.40 rated price. Still a heavy favourite, but likely to lose a race like this more than she’d win it. 

What’s the angle then? RUDYARD doesn’t have the peaks of some others in the race and hasn’t won over 1400m in five attempts. That said, he’s a twice confirmed SR95 over the trip carrying 59 & 60kg, so shouldn’t be underestimated at all from barrier 1. On the back of two trials, he looks a fair 1 x 3 outlay.

Then there’s an ex-Hong Kong-trained horse, MEANINGFUL STAR who also trialed nicely and could run into the money late in the race.

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HorseTorque NZ - Key Runners:

Ellerslie

Race 2: 2 NEREUS (rated price $2.00)

Race 8: 2 CAST OF DIAMONDS (rated price $2.30)

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Race 6: 6 JAY BEE GEE (rated price $3.80)

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