Unique Insight's

Saturday, 19 October 2024 by Gavin Haynes

There is no other form provider supplying the depth of data we do, we have traditional  Weight Ratings and Speed ratings which tell us who is running times faster than average for their class, once they get to town we get a sectional rating, where a horses last 400m is taken into account creating an artificial time that can be used to create a rating. If the Sectional Rating (XR) is higher than the Speed Rating (SR) we know the horse was strong through the line, if it is lower we know it came home slower than it went out. Not such a concern with leaders but for horses rising in trip its vital information. We also have a TOF (Turn of Foot0  rating which is a numerical indication of how many lengths  faster or slower. Runners with +6 and greater have been strong through the line. We have only had this feature for 18 months or so now and I have heard from many clients who have found many a long priced winner with horses looking to be well beaten at previous start yet still made up many many lengths.

These tools still blow the mind of the 18yo me, you know I was born BI (Before Internet). In the distant past when I was at Best Bets and on Radio 4TAB I didnt have half the tools I do now. and had to build the Base rating fron scratch, so much time spent before doing the form now I get what I call my Form Command Centre

The above was Bella Nippotina going into the Everest. I get an instant snapshot of what happened last time, how my assessment went, and what changes ar up for the race ahead. This allows me to process the huge volume of form I do. I am trying to talk nathan into putting into the detailed form section for you guys, so if that's something that would help you, now's the time to put your hand up.

I compare the depth of my comment now compared to my time at Best Bets because now I can give some science behind the choices I make and this can only help you use me as the punting assistant.

Lets start with R1 at Caulfield

2. GETAFIX: Got out to 1400m 2 back and caught the eye with +17 and followed that with 2nd rating 92/92 both against the older horses. Back to own age and the Magic Man jumps on. He is the Gold Miner at $4.20.

1. SUGAR COAT: Had won 2 on the bounce to start career before a bullet dodged when beaten at odds on. XR 92 there was -4 and now gets 2kg with the 11 gate to deal with.

Unlike 40% of punters you know the Fav is bad value, as was the 3rd pick.

The Magic One does his thing and the day is away

In the first at Randwick you were steered away from the Fav

2. ALEGRON: Brisbane Cup winner fitter for two runs back. That was only win in last 2 years. has fired a shot in2 this time and extra ground is a major plus but $4.80 seems silly short to me.

Back at Caulfield  for the 2nd and   my advice was to stay out with top 2 unders, and as I've said many times before avoiding a loser is the same as backing an even money winner.

For those that played the value the $11 rated Lofty Arch was $13 into $9.50 before winning

$2 Million up for grabs in the Kosciosko and again at this time of the year cream rises to the top.

My advice was to back the only value 1 x 3 and Far Too Easy was far too good.

Into the Sydney Stakes we feasted again

1. OVERPASS: First-up. This top class 6yo won the Quokka in WA first up this weight trip last time in with an SR 112 after ending previous campaign with a G1 win in the Winterbottom. That campaign started with aa 2nd in the G2 1100m Shorts where he rated 110/111. Since had two trial wins and 58,5kg in G3 company looks a gift. He looks a lovely 1 x 3 play at $5.

We also dodge the over bet fav.

I had my eye on a few on the decline in The Everest "1. I WISH I WIN: Was our 1 x 3 play when 3rd in the G1 Manikato last start and I know MVY isnt his track but he just isnt the same horse. In 8 runs upto the end of April last year he was Double Diamond (7 times confirmed) 113. In 4 1200m runs since his best XR is only 106. He looks light to my eye.

3. PRIVATE EYE: 7yo mare Winner of over $10 million but in the same boat, this time last year she was Double Diamond 111. He best since was last start with Xr 108 but it was neg split at 1100m.

2. GIGA KICK: Is another living on reputation alone, he was 3 for 3 and a G3 winner with an XR 108, 2 starts he won an Everest rating Sr111. His 2 runs in march last year were Xr 115 followed by XR116 wrapping up that campaign with back to back G1's and another Sr 113. His best since Sr 102. Again taking on trust.

5. I AM ME: Racing in tip-top order. Beat several of these in the Concorde first-up including Giga Kick and private Eye then strong again in the The Shorts. Went Sr 114 at 1000m fresh then 119 SR at 1100m 2nd up but now rises in W&D off that peak but majorly neg split run, in fact it was -10

4. BELLA NIPOTINA: Top shelf mare who is confirmed Sr 113 her last 4, she was unlucky when closing intently to just miss at short odds in the Premiere. Super consistent but map doesnt look friendly

9. GROWING EMPIRE: Exciting colt but I am not 100% convinced just yet. Prominent and showed plenty of fight to just miss in the Manikato at latest but best XR to date is only 97.

Again we find the value, what huge run, 3 wide the trip and looks like Giga Kick may be back.

When we find horses to Lay it also advertises that there is value in a market we had another example in the last at Caulfield

8. RIPCORD: This Ex Sandgroper was disappointing first up, yet to win 2nd upand although did run 2nd at only 1400m run rated 98/99 and only had 54kg on back, 58kg here. Happy sell him all day at $9.

As I said to a mate the other day we just had a Full Moon and that means upsets, Ive observed it for years and years, the word lunatic comes from the fact people went crazy on full moons, its also a proven fact that hospital admissions and crime spikes. our body is 66% water and the moon is powerful enough to shift the oceans and you dont think it affects all living creatures

arrrrr00000!!

Onto the Cox Plate