Randwick Guineas Day Review

Wednesday, 13 March 2024 by Gavin Haynes

R2 was the G2 Riesling for the 2yo Fillies and my advice was to stay out as there were so many unknowns. We rated the winner Erno's Cube at $4 and she was $6 to $4.  but only rated 79/80 and the winner was the only sub 23 second runner for the last 400m running 22.7  but these are the 2nd string 2yo baby girls and nothing worth following from here.

R3 was the Listed cCity Stakes at 2000m and our strong 1 x 3 play Almania came out and I hope you all followed him up on Sunday where I had him $1.70 when he won the Canberra Cup at 9/4. We ended with Military Mission on top and he ran 3rd as a $12 Gold Miner. He ended last campaign with 110/110  and he picked up where he left off with 103/110.The winner Serpentine is a staying type who surprised winning 1st up, he had 108/116 at 2500m last time in so his 109/113 wasn't a total surprise and suggest he is in for a great campaign. I have had a little opinion of the runner up Bois D'Argent and he was another resuming not noted 1st up. He had 105/113 this trip last time in and franked that with a 4th in the Caulfield Cup where he rated 113/110. 105/109 suggests he is also in for a good Autumn. 4th placed Diamil  was best home rating 101/111. He can be hard to catch but was  confirmed XR 112 last year. This shapes to be a strong form line going forward.

R4 was the Listed Fireball for the 3yo's at 1100m and I was happy to let this slide having major fitness doubts about the top 2 and it proved sage advice with the $26 winner hard to find. All eyes were on Red Resistance resuming off a long spell but fitness gave out badly in the run home rating 101/90. He will strip all the fitter next time out.  As i have discussed many times at some point ina horses first 10 starts they have a quantum leap of 10 points + and that was the case with the winner Infancy. Her previous best was an Sr 90 so where 109/103 came from only god knows. This sort of runner often bounces at next run making her really hard to assess next time we see her. Corniche was only having 2nd run in 12 months and he blew like he turned up with 3 legs but ended up running 2nd as a $10 Gold Miner. 107/103 was a new peak at start 5 and is another juvenile on the up. With Ballroom Bella and Keenan also running career peaks I have real concern about the validity of these numbers. Time will tell.

R5 was the G2 Todman for the 2yo boys and there was plenty of talent on display. Our top 2 ran top 2 and are both high quality juveniles. The winner Switzerland kept his unbeaten record intact stepping to the 1200m but 97/89 was hardly strong late, Diamil ran faster closing splits at 2000m?! Straight Charge was a length behind and even weaker late 93/87. In my eye the Slipper remains an open book. Storm Boy remains a 6/4 fav in that and his last start Xr 92 remains the best coming in.

R6 Was the G2 Challenge Stakes and i said this about the winner 'We haven't seen PASSIVE AGGRESSIVE since last May but he kicked off that campaign with 112/116 this T&D. He has won 5 of 8 and we are yet to see the best of him' He was a tasty overlay winner and franked that performance with 110/114 getting home a staggering 21.5. The race shape played against 6/4 fav Private Eye but nothing wrong with numbers rating 104/112 and got home in a race fastest 21.4 !! Runner up in 5yo Zapateo has come back stronger following Sr 102 resuming he held on with 107/107.Aft Cabin ran 3rd after not having much luck 107/110 was excellent for a horse over an unsuitable trip.

R7 was the G1 Canterbury Stakes and who would of thought Lady Laguna  would be a G1 winner, we had her 3rd pick at 411 and she was $13 to $11 after she gave us a hint of a new level 2 back with 100/110 and went to a whole new level here with 114/114. She hasnt missed the podium her last 11 winning 5 times and is a 4yo mare really coming into her own. We had 110 horse Think About It on top and 107/107 was just down a bit on that spoiling her unbeaten 1st up record. There was a poultice of money for Espiona but race shape played against her but she lost not followers with 108/111

R8 was the 2nd of the G1's, the Randwick Guineas  for the 3yo's and 2nd pick  and $3.1 rated Celestial Legend went back to back for us with a big win after sitting wide the trip, he held off a wall of closers to win well. I had him a 103 horse going in and 102/100 was right in the ball park. Top pick and short Fav Militarize ran 2ndwith 102/98 down on expected when perhaps a little flat 2nd up. Cafe Millenium ran a career best with 101/97 and Tom kitten didnt have the clearest of passages but 98/98 was a good return and  will only improve over further.

R9 was the G3 Aspiration for the F&M's and I had a length between a dozen of them ina no bet and there was nothing on the clock here at all with the winner Lekvarte 85/95 sound home a decent 22.1 clearly the run of the race.

The last was another G3 contest this for the Mares and Tintookie relished the return to the1100m with 106/102 franked by SR's of 103 and 107 in her past 5.. Cest Magicue ran 2nd, she was a triple confirm Sr 100  horse last time in and 102/102 suggests he is primed to peak next time out. Wee Nessy and Reinbel were 3rd and 4th both with respectable XR's of 98.

We head back to Rosehill on Saturday for the G1 Coolmore for the F&M's and there is a super strong support card as ever we will be all over it like hair on a gorilla