Hill Stakes Day Review

Tuesday, 15 October 2024 by Gavin Haynes

Kovalica franks his XR111 first up with XR 111 in the G2 Hill Stakes.

Is value at $34 in the Cox Plate

We kicked off with a average Midway where top pick Alabama State went to a whole new level with a dominant 97/97, runner up Treize only had an XR of 88 whilst 3rd placed Piraeus caught the eye with 92/98, he has bobbed up in the mid 90's in the past and if he can hold form there is a Midway for him. Ticks for Totoka and Apoolo Mission

R2 was a poor Highway, i said avoid in like the plague and that was sage advice with the $12.50 rated winner being 21 into 11 before winning with 92/80 Mazita 2nd with XR 85 and Straight Fire 3rd with XR 86 are the other 2 to get ticks.

I made a silly call here in making Medatsu a lay despite the the $2 fav being rated $6.60, I took the soft call instead of the hard call and again paid the price, He ran a career best XR of 99.  At least Gold Miner Mare Of Mt Buller ran 3rd with 86/97 getting home 22.5 same as the winner Runner up Faye's Angel ran a huge career peak  Bear on the Loose wasn't as good as all expected and ran 4th with an XR 92.Xr 95

The Lay day nightmare just kept unfolding today, all after I wave the flag a little at  the run of successful lays, I've seen this a Million times, as soon as you spruik the universe quickly squares you away as El Castello rams home the  less than 10 starts laying rule, 5 starts won last 2 and hits a new peak of 98/103 in the G3 Gloaming. Top pick Swiftfalcon was solid with XR 102. BB'r Henlein was disappointing with 79/94 Rag queen also gets a tick with XR 95. When source wants to make a point to me it is not subtle.

Waller Colt Gatesby drifted noticeably with 90/96 in the G2 Roman Consul whilst money came for Wallers other runner Switzerland who was 2nd up after a poor one resuming went to a whole new level with 102/103, again we notice the big form spike in another lightly raced type. Gatesby again was better than looked getting home 21.8 with an XR 96 I havent given up on him yet. Race shape just played against. Slipper runner up Coleman was good again with XR98

The Listed Tapp-Craig was race 6 and top pick Gold miner off XR 98 franked by XR 100 4 back was very poor with 87/86, $3.50 2nd pick Anode was $3.70 into $2.8 with 101/94 right in his wheelhouse. Just Party was the eye catcher, he was luckless 4th as a Gold Miner last start and flashed here late with 100/102. there is a race for him soon. They were dominant with 3 lengths on 3rd.

R7 was the G2 Hill Stakes and we got our Lays back on track with Pericles, he has had 21 starts we know him well, a 103 horse at best but after Xr 88 last start he only produced XR 94 today.. Royal Patronage was light early, did drift but I was already looking away from him and ended on Golden Path who was a 1 x3 Gold Miner early but was $6 into $4.20 coming off a confirmed XR of 112 but 83/94 was poor. He  has had no more than a few 6 week breaks since March of last year. If he was mine it would be into the paddock now. The winner at $26 was Attrition and boy I was dirty on myself only giving him 97 despite XR 103 last start. This guy has had some issues but won last years G1 Toorak by start 10 he was Diamond (produced 5 times) confirmed 104 rater but that form was all over 12 months ago and weve seen this happen a few times of late where horses recapture there best that is a little older than 12 months. Just something to be wary of. The base rating should still be 104, not the 101 I had him at, take off the 2 for distance query and there is no doubt I should of had him under 16/1. He followed that XR 103 behind Pride Of Jenny with XR 106 here. The eye catcher however was Kovalica, I said it was DDay and although he didn't win his XR 111 (home in 21.9 was 5 better than winner and 14 better than the 3rd placed Royal Patronage. This guy as i said in my comment promised the world as a juvenile and was Diamond confirmed 110 and had produced XR 111 before having no luck in the Epsom. Im not sure where he is going next but I want to be on him. He is $34 in Cox Plate markets and if he gets 110 he will be most likely top 4 in my market making him big overs.

R8 was the $1.5 Million 'Let Them Eat Cake' handicap and I suggested a little 1 x 3 speculator on Territory Express at $29 who caught the eye flashing late home best in race with 22.1 and an XR 100 Waterford with XR  also caught the eye home also in 22.1. We found the Quinella in our top 4 with 99 horse Here To Shock winning with an XR 101 and Gringotts a 102 horse with XR 101

R9 saw 100 horse Olentia looking a 1 x 3 lock in the G3 Nivison and she was a dominant winner with XR 100, that XR was 10 better than 2nd at 12 better than 3rd. I noted Miss Hellfire getting home nicely late in 21,9 and an Xr 95.

We round out our day with $2.20 good thing in 98 horse  Pharari getting the job done at just that quote with XR 99 His XR was 7 better than runner up and 10 better than the 3rd placed horse. Miss Hades did catch the eye late.

All in all a solid day for the ratings and some big lessons in the world of laying, those we will cash in on over the next few weeks

Horses To Follow

Kovalica
Just Party
Waterford

Its onto Everest day next week in what is a bumper day right around Australia