Flemington Derby Day Review

Sunday, 5 November 2023 by Gavin Haynes

R1 Carbine Club G3 1600m 3yo 

We find the Trifecta in our top 4 with the winner Kaizad rated at $6.60 a winning Gold Miner at $11. Numbers were slick with the winner going on from his 96/98 last start with 108/98. The Horse to follow was the runner up Heman who was peaking 3rd up out at the mile for the first time with 106/105 containing the best splits by far in the race. Brace Mead was also rock solid with 103/101

HTF-  Heman

R2 The Archer G3 2500m  Open

We find the Quinella in our top 3 in a small field staying race in which I was happy to stay out. The winner Kalapour franked his 102/102 last start in Sydney with 101/108  with Ollie controlling things from the front.  The runner up Athabascan followed his last 3 XR's of 103,104 and 108 with 100/106. 3rd place was import Gan Teorainn franked that 108/117 in Sydney last start with 94/106. There is a race for him shortly.

HTF - Gan Teorainn

R3 Furphy Sprint G3 1100m Mares

The $9 rated Queen Of The Ball was $9 to $7.5 race day before winning, it was 400 days since her last win but she relished the drop back to 1100m and she was an absolutely dominant winner , home in 22.5 rating 111/109. Her last 400m was .7 of second ( 4.5 lengths) faster than anything else. Runner up Hypothetical rated 107/98, XR 11 points lower than winner. She was a confirmed XR 103 horse her previous 5 so no real surprises. I declared top pick Dancing Alone the Gold Miner on Thursday when she was $5. Her 100/95 was rock solid when 3rd. We dodged the unplaced $3.4 fav Rose Quartz who ran 4th. 96.87 was quite weak late.

R4 Rising Fast G3 Open

This race was bizarre, on face value it looked like they ran along with Najem Suhail getting out to a 6 length lead with Spacewalk leading the pack, but the numbers told a different story as they actually went slow. The leader wilted late 89/71 but the rest of the hoops all got caught napping with Spacewalk sticking to an even gallop of 90/91 to score with 1400m horse Crosshaven the best through the line with an XR 95 when 2nd. 4th, 5th and 6th all got home sub 22.6 but could make any in roads.

R5 Wakeful G2 2000m 3yo F

We find another trifecta in our top 4 but clear top pick despite getting home best by far couldn't reel in the winner. 106/101 was good and looks primed for the Oaks. The winner was Amazonian lass  but 106/96 had an XR 5 below the runner up. They had over 2 lengths on the 3rd placed Harlow Mist whose XR was only 89. Race falls away after those. 

HTF Zardozi

R6 The Coolmore G1 1200m 3yo

The race weakened from when i did the form with Kings Gambit and Steparty both coming out. The money just kept coming for Shinzo, I was friendly in rating him at $11.60 and he was into $4.40 by race time and 94/90 does nothing to change my opinion of him despite him running 3rd.  We rated the $18 winner Ozzmosis at the same quote. He was already a confirmed Sr 102 horse coming in as he peaked 3rd up and he made 4 wins from 5. I predicted 98 for him and got 100/96 which was right on the mark .We also dodged the unplaced $3.80 fav Cylinder rating him at $4.60 and his 72/67 was straight out poor. I also predicted I Am Unstoppable at 98 with the runner up $10 into $6.50 on race day with 95/92 a little  below expectations.

R7 The Derby G1 2500m 3yo's

This ended up a straight ball over home plate and another Trifecta in our top 4. Top pick and best bet Riff Rocket  copped a peach of a ride from Jmac and just held on. He had rated 105/115 2 back and franked that with 106/116. 2nd pick Apulia came hard late to just miss 106/117 tells us he is also top draw. With Sunsets the horse that beat Riff Rocket last time out holding on for 3rd, 102/112 was still first class. The only other runner worth mentioning was Kosgai with 92/105 +13.  This already adds plenty of depth to the Autumn. 

R8 The Empire Rose G1 1600m  F&M

As I stated in my review it would be some spectacle but didn't think it was a betting opportunity. Mt concern with winner Pride Of Jenni was the fact she hadnt won in 5 at the mile but in a daring ride Declan Bates used her gate speed to full advantage getting her out to a huge lead  running a huge career peak SR 116 but that XR of 96 (-20)  showed just how much she paddled late.  The runner up Atishu was clearly the run of the race 112/116, home 22.9 , a last 400m 1.1 seconds faster than the winner The had panels on the 3rd placed and value runner Life Lessons whose 101/99 was right on the mark. There were plenty of good mares just behind her all running to their mark, Renaissance Woman was 5.5 lengths off the winner but her 23.1 was 2nd fastest last 400m in the race. Princess  Grace and Hinged were equal 3rd fastest home. This will be another strong form reference.

HTF Atishu

R9 The Damien Oliver G2 1400m Open
104 horse and top pick Tamarlane lead them up as expected and held on solidly for 4th with 105/102 right in his ball park. The winner Cause For Concern pi$$ed me off a bit as we have been with him many times and he had lit up the clock at 1100m in the past but I didn't see 108/112 coming. I should of however given him a couple more points thanks to the big weight drop down to 53kg. Hindsight is always 20/20. Runner up Bandersnatch rated at $18 was huge for 2nd , 3 wide the trip after being $34 into $26. 107/107 was excellent. 2nd pick and 103 horse Munhamek was luckless from the 18 gate but 106/111 was top draw franking his 105/108 in QLD last time in. The one to follow. We dodged Vilana as expected but ratings were much improved 104/106 confirmed in why there was money for him.  Ayrton was only beaten 1.6 lengths running  the best last 400m in the race 102/109 backs up his return win and he has put his problems behind him. 

HTF Munhamek