The Magic One

Tuesday, 24 September 2024 by Admin User

A startling insight into Joao Moreira that few know.

 The Magic Man is here for the Spring and this information might just be compelling to know when evaluating your race day strategy.

What defines maybe the greatest ever?

You decide?

With over 2400 wins, a winning strike rate of 23% and a place strike rate over 50% and the fastest ever in Hong Kong to notch up one hundred wins we have a reason for Horsetorque punters to take note this Spring.

What I discovered with the ratings in Hong Kong  is that when the Magic Man jumped on a horse more often than not the average rating I had for that horse consistently elevated about 5-7 rating points! An irrefutable fact based on 3 seasons of data ! And of course sometimes even more with Joao on board. So a standard horse with a speed rating of say 88 jumps to 94 and a decent 105 rated horse jumps to 110 or 112 more often than not the difference between winning and losing. Yes he is offered the best rides and the best choice of rides  but it is the consistent jump in rating numbers that rings loud.. Yes there is indeed  something magic about it.

I know what it is!

 Sliding doors moment.

 I was lucky enough to introduce myself to a retired Jockey in Qld a few years ago at a Gold Coast sports bar and we got talking about my ratings and the impact Moreira has when he takes the mount. I asked given this gentleman had ridden race horses for over 50 years himself, never ever realising what insights he was about to share, “what is the attribute that Moreira possesses you think that is so unique? Is it just an incredible sense of timing and tempo?” He said “Gavin that’s partly it, he is certainly world class in those aspects but there is more to it…Moreira has changed everything with our thinking as Jockeys.” He went on to say that every Jockey around the world had always been taught and subscribed to the rule that when your mount is tiring in the running the horses natural inclination is to change legs (the leg they lead with)  but to let the horse do so loses costly  momentum.  It was for a jockey a cardinal sin that has always been the case in our sport for ever and a day. So we were always taught to keep our mount on the same leg no matter what their chance of winning the actual race was. We never considered there was ever an alternative.  He explained, “A horse will change their leading leg to give their muscles a break, with each change comes a burst of energy as horses will use different muscles, especially when they are galloping at full speed. Like when you are, for example carrying a bag of groceries to your car. You will stop and swing the bag from one tired arm to a fresh arm. But the changeover time  for lost momentum does not matter with groceries, but was always viewed as sudden death for your chances of winning on a thoroughbred. Moreira changed all that. Moreira broke free of this deep-rooted perceived best practise of how to ride a race horse. His skill is in his ability to sense that his horse in running is probably not going to win and in real time Moreira deliberately changes his mounts leading leg. He does not always do this but choses to do so when he senses the need. Nor does it always work. Not every horse is good enough regardless of the Jockey however overall he has an almighty edge”.  I interrupted and said “how do you change the leading  leg before the horse wants to?” He said, “For example, to change from the right to left lead, the rider will bump with the right leg and give a tug on the left rein while shifting their body weight firmly to the left to change the horse's balance and ask for the switch. It’s easy.  Moreira times it though, so that he has time to make up for the lost momentum in running. That’s his skill set that sets him apart. It is precise, it is freaky and never been done before. Moreira is groundbreaking he has worked out an inception point on the cusp of his mount not having enough horsepower remaining to win, to change legs, re balance and then gather up the field. Changing legs is half the story, an incredible half but the other part is how does he know? He always seems to nail it. It’s  simple and he is simply brilliant at it. He knows the horse underneath him like nobody else.”

I shook his hand and left him the ex jockey, and the sports bar that night with my head spinning in awe.

What prompted me to share this with you is I have just done the ratings from Saturday.  Buckaroo that the Magic Man rode at Caulfield was a confirmed 107 rated horse going into the race and won rating 114. Yes there was natural improvement but it also rings loud that this is not a one off occurrence and no two jockeys are the same.

My job is to provide my clients with the factual numbers based on a horses previous performance. I don’t change the predicted rating to a number they have not yet achieved. The numbers are real and they enable framing a market based on each runners factual  speed rated history. I pay for the subscription to access the data for every horse which runs with a chip in its saddle measuring the race time and every sectional split to a hundredth of a second. I provide a ratings market based on facts. My comments cover many subjective angles to be considered and  will always mention that you factor in Moreira being on board.

 My normal betting strategy many of you follow.

If a horse is rated at 5s and paying 3s It’s unders = no bet.

If a horse is rated at 5s and is paying 8s it’s overs = bet.

If a horse is rated at 5s and is paying 10s or more = double the winning stake bet. Double overlay.

 One client who punts on Moreira in Hong Kong and when he is in Oz adds 5 rating points to my predicted rating when Joao is on board. And then re rates the speed rated odds. So he changes a 90 rated horse to a predicted 95 rated horse and changes the ratings market. How much it changes the rated price depends on the speed rating  numbers of the other runners around that horse  in the race.

A horse rated at 5s that might be unders paying $2.30  is a no bet,  when re-rated say down to $2.50 still comes  in as unders = so no bet.

A horse rated at 5s though by Horsetorque already paying 9s with 5 ‘Moreira’ points re-rated down to $2.50 paying 9s becomes a double overlay Gold Miner.

That is the magic behind the Magic Man. Though it is not an illusion, it is real.

Its is energy based, he has that magical zzz thing, divine connection, divine spark, divine gift, divine inner knowing, divine intuition and dedication to his craft. As Nicola Tesla said when thinking of the universe always think in terms of frequency energy and vibration. Life force is energy. They are now zapping tumours with sound frequency with no surgery with 100% success rates.

Why can I horse rate 100/101 under Jmac then stays same grade and trip and drop in weight when a 3kilo claimer jumps on and plummet in ratings. Jmac bold confident knows his craft , the animal feels this and in turn gains confidence, the young kid however, is green as grass, intimidated by his peers and the horsebwill sense this

It pays to know the fast ones! (And Jockey).